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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2MIA
DET

DET

84-65

4
6
MIA

MIA

70-79

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
21,014 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

DET 4 · MIA 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
DET002010000014
MIA110001000036

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 97
    175
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 97
    62
    28(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    176
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    171
    29(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    253
    21(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 95
    124
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Detroit Tigers, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Andy Ibanez

Andy Ibanez

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

RF

2.600OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
DET84-65
4
6
MIA70-79
DET84-65·MIA70-79
DET

DET

84-65

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
2-66020002
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-33101011
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-55122101
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44100010
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-55020002
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-55011002
SPRINT27.969
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-44010010
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-55010001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-22100000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
1-11010000
T. SweeneyT. SweeneySS
0-11000001
Team10-414141041410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MortonC. Morton★SP
4.0322440
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
3.0211011
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0000010
W. VestW. VestRP
2.0100110
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
0.1232001
Team10.1865572
MIA

MIA

70-79

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-33000020
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
2-55120001
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-55000001
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-55021000
SPRINT28.381
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-44101011
SPRINT28.483
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-44223212
SPRINT26.326
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
1-33110010
V. Mesa Jr.V. Mesa Jr.★CF
0-44000001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-44011001
Team8-3737686257
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. JunkJ. Junk★SP
6.0733141
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
1.0100100
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0000020
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000010
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.1210120
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
0.2000110
Team11.010434101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • C. Morton
    76 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      41%·82.5 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      22%·93.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Melton
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      34%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • CH
      100%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Montero
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      67%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.3 mph·100% whiff

MIA

  • J. Junk
    88 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.9 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.4 mph·42% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.5 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.7 mph·25% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      27%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·76.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·78.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·90.9 mph·— whiff
  • M. Petersen
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      64%·98.2 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      36%·88.7 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      57%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      21%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·96.2 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FS
      42%·84.6 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      25%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

4

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Sep 12DETDET2@MIAMIA8
Sep 13DETDET4@MIAMIA6today
Sep 14DETDET2@MIAMIA0

Season series

MIA leads series 2-0

Sep 12DETDET2@MIAMIA8
Sep 13DETDET4@MIAMIA6today
Sep 14DETDET2@MIAMIA0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 37pp · Bottom 11th Inning

DETDET
A. Ibanez

A. Ibanez

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Morton

C. Morton

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

MIAMIA
T. Johnston

T. Johnston

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.600 OPS

J. Junk

J. Junk

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat DET 6-4. Johnston's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Win probability

MIA vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 10th Inning · 3-3
+21pp→ 68% WP

Carpenter · struck out swinging.

DETTop 11th Inning · 3-3
+26pp→ 62% WP

Torkelson · singled to left, Greene to third.

MIABottom 11th Inning · 4-6
+37pp→ 100% WP

Johnston · homered to right center (413 feet), Hernández scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
DET002010000014
MIA110001000036

Period scoring

DET won 2 · MIA won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Lopez 1

0
1

Inn 2

Sanoja 1

2
0

Inn 3

Carpenter 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Torres 1

0
1

Inn 6

Johnston 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
3

Inn 11

Johnston 2

DET
MIA

Play-by-play · 651 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    ·

    DET 4·MIA 6

  2. B11

    Johnston homered to right center (413 feet), Hernández scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 6

    +37pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 6

  4. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 4

  5. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 4

  6. B11

    Rafael Montero pitches to Troy Johnston

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 6

  7. B11

    ·

    DET 4·MIA 4

  8. B11

    Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wiemer scored, Lopez out at second.

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 4

    +1pp

  9. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 4

  10. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  11. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  12. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  13. B11

    Rafael Montero pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 4

  14. B11

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  15. B11

    Lopez reached on infield single to third, Wiemer to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

    +16pp

  16. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  17. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  18. B11

    Rafael Montero pitches to Otto Lopez

    ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  19. B11

    R. Montero relieved Vest

    ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  20. B11

    Báez at shortstop.

    DET 4·MIA 3

  21. B11

    Wiemer ran for Hicks

    ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  22. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    DET 4·MIA 3

  23. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    DET 4·MIA 3

  24. T11

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  25. T11

    Meadows struck out swinging, Jones to second, Keith to third, Pérez out at home on runner's fielder's choice.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

    +12pp

  26. T11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  27. T11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  28. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  29. T11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

  30. T11

    Josh Simpson pitches to Parker Meadows

    · ·

    DET 4·MIA 3

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

4

Runs

6

10

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

14

TB

16

1

HR

2

4

BB

5

10

K

7

22

LOB

12

Player projections

MIA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    4.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    47.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.9%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381