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FINAL+1LAA
LAD

LAD

68-53

5
6
LAA

LAA

59-62

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,893 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAD 5 · LAA 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD3002000005
LAA020020026

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 97
    106
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    123
    21(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    196
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    176
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    134
    3(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    169
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesLAA win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
LAD68-53
5
6
LAA59-62
LAD68-53·LAA59-62
LAD

LAD

68-53

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44110013
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-55122000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-55000001
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-33113120
SPRINT2744
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-44010003
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000000
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-33110010
SPRINT27.765
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33100013
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-33010011
Team7-34345751611
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
4.1544071
SPRINT2744
A. BandaA. Banda★RP
0.2000210
E. HenriquezE. Henriquez★RP
1.0200010
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
2.0122210
Team8.08664101
LAA

LAA

59-62

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44012001
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33000011
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33000013
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-22211120
SPRINT27.457
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-22110001
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-44010000
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-33001003
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
2-44122000
SPRINT27.251
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT29.395
C. MooreC. Moore2B
0-22100000
Team8-31316861410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
3.1655341
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.1100120
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.1000120
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0000110
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0000020
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000000
Team9.07556111

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 3-0

Aug 12LADLAD4@LAALAA7
Aug 13LADLAD6@LAALAA7
Aug 14LADLAD5@LAALAA6today

Season series

LAA win series 6-0

May 17LAALAA6@LADLAD2
May 18LAALAA11@LADLAD9
May 18LAALAA6@LADLAD4
Aug 12LADLAD4@LAALAA7
Aug 13LADLAD6@LAALAA7
Aug 14LADLAD5@LAALAA6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 49pp · Bottom 8th Inning

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 5 H

LAALAA
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAA beat LAD 6-5. O'Hoppe's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Win probability

LAA vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 77% WP

Smith · homered to left (407 feet), Betts scored.

LAABottom 5th Inning · 5-4
+20pp→ 41% WP

Neto · doubled to left, Teodosio scored and O'Hoppe scored.

LAABottom 8th Inning · 5-6
+49pp→ 82% WP

O'Hoppe · singled to center, Moore scored and Ward scored, Adell to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD3002000005
LAA02002002—6

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · LAA won 3

3
0

Inn 1

Smith 2

0
2

Inn 2

Ward 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Betts 1

0
2

Inn 5

Neto 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

O'Hoppe 2

0

Inn 9

LAD
LAA

Play-by-play · 611 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  2. T9

    Smith lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  9. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Will Smith

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  10. T9

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  11. T9

    Freeman grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

    +7pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  13. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Freddie Freeman

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  14. T9

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  15. T9

    Betts flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

    +5pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  19. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Mookie Betts

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  20. T9

    Jansen relieved Burke

    ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  23. B8

    · ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  24. B8

    Teodosio grounded out to third.

    · ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  25. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

  30. B8

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Bryce Teodosio

    · ·

    LAD 5·LAA 6

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

5

Runs

6

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

12

TB

14

1

HR

1

6

BB

4

11

K

10

21

LOB

15

Player projections

LAA vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    47.9%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.9%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175