MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NYY

NYY

69-57

61-66

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

10,046 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
47.3%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.6%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low
Will WarrenNYY
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Trent GrishamNYY
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low
Will WarrenNYY
2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

.763

OPS

◀

.715

.719

.331

OBP

.319

▶

.335

5.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.16

3.94

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.23

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 6 · TB 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
NYY	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	3	6
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	4

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.249	5	2	3	2	2	0	1
B. Rice1B	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. JudgeRF	.330	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. BellingerLF	.272	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.236	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. DominguezLF	.257	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. VolpeSS	.213	4	1	0	0	0	0	2
R. McMahon3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. WellsC	.209	4	2	2	2	2	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.348	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rosario3B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.279	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. StantonDH	.311	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
Team		37	6	9	6	5	2	13

Player

AVG

RBI

.249

.239

.330

.272

.236

.257

.213

.239

.209

.348

.500

.279

.311

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. SchlittlerSP	6.2	1	0	0	2	8	95
L. WeaverRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	20
D. BednarRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	3	27
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	3	24
Team	10.0	6	4	3	3	16	166

Player

6.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

166

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. SimpsonLF	.299	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
Y. DiazDH	.279	5	0	0	0	0	0	4
B. Lowe2B	.269	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. Caminero3B	.255	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. LoweLF	.227	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
H. FeducciaC	.172	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
J. MangumLF	.273	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. Seymour1B	.188	4	1	2	2	1	0	2
T. Gray3B	.143	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		36	4	6	4	1	3	16

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
D. RasmussenSP	6.0	5	2	2	2	6	91
E. UcetaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
G. JaxRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19
M. EnglertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	2	3	2	0	1	22
Team	10.0	9	6	5	2	13	158

Team

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.