Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+16POR

IND

4-4

84100

POR

6-4

WNBASat, May 30FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasIND -11.5

IND · top performer

Kelsey Mitchell

G · #0

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Emily Engstler

F · #21

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 0.0

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	8	0	—	—	—	-9	1	0
A. BostonC · #7	26	18	7-13	0-1	4-4	-14	7	2
K. MitchellG · #0	33	17	4-9	1-2	8-9	-11	1	4
L. HullG · #10	16	0	0-4	0-4	—	-9	1	1
C. ClarkG · #22	22	6	1-7	0-2	4-5	-8	2	6
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	18	7	3-5	1-1	—	+1	2	2
M. TimpsonF · #21	25	11	3-5	—	5-5	-4	6	1
G. VanSlootenF · #14	6	2	1-1	—	—	-6	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	26	15	3-5	2-4	7-8	-4	3	4
T. HarrisG · #52	12	5	1-5	1-5	2-2	-5	2	1
R. JohnsonG · #3	10	3	1-4	0-3	1-2	-11	1	0
Team		84	24-58	5-22	31-35		26	21
DNP: D. Dantas

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	32	14	6-15	2-6	—	+17	2	3
E. EngstlerF · #21	29	16	7-10	2-3	—	+15	10	4
N. PuochF · #13	16	2	1-3	—	—	-4	2	1
GustafsonC · #17	28	22	8-8	1-1	5-6	+15	1	0
C. LeiteG · #0	27	18	6-12	0-2	6-6	+20	1	12
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	14	10	3-5	0-1	4-4	+14	1	0
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	12	0	0-1	—	—	+1	1	1
H. WinterburnG · #77	3	0	—	—	—	-3	0	1
S. BarkerG · #3	28	15	4-13	3-9	4-4	+6	6	4
T. OblakG · #7	10	3	1-3	1-1	—	-1	1	0
Team		100	36-70	9-23	19-20		25	26
DNP: S. Williams, K. Samuelson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

POR

Home

24-58

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-70

FG %

5-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-23

31-35

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 20

POR73@

IND90

May 31

IND84@

POR100today

Aug 1

IND@

PORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND-55085%

POR+41020%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -11.5↗SpreadBet IND -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

173.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat IND 100-84. E. Engstler led with 16 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. POR outscored the other side 29-15 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

41 PTS · 12 REB · 13 AST

GS 29

Bench(6)

43 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 30

PORstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 16 REB · 20 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR2nd Quarter · 9:17 · 16-32

+6pp→ 78% WP

Emily Engstler · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)

IND2nd Quarter · 4.6 · 35-50

+9pp→ 19% WP

Teja Oblak · personal foul

IND2nd Quarter · 0.0 · 37-50

+11pp→ 21% WP

End of the 2nd Quarter

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	15	22	25	22	84
POR	29	21	37	13	100

Period scoring

IND won 2 · POR won 2

Boston 6

Gustafson 8

Mitchell 8

Engstler 5

Boston 8

Engstler 9

Cunningham 8

Carleton 6

IND

POR

Shooting comparison

IND

POR

41%

24-58

51%

36-70

23%

5-22

3PT

39%

9-23

89%

31-35

95%

19-20

Play-by-play · 438 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 84·POR 100
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 84·POR 100
Q4·9.7
Grace VanSlooten makes 6-foot two point shot (Tyasha Harris assists)
·
IND 84·POR 100
Q4·18.2
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
IND 82·POR 100
Q4·21.2
Sarah Ashlee Barker misses two point shot
IND 82·POR 100
Q4·43.3
Fire defensive team rebound
IND 82·POR 100
Q4·45.1
Myisha Hines-Allen misses 3-foot hook shot
IND 82·POR 100
Q4·1:03
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
IND 82·POR 100
Q4·1:03
Holly Winterburn out of bounds bad pass turnover
IND 82·POR 100
Q4·1:17
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 82·POR 100
Q4·1:17
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 81·POR 100
Q4·1:17
Nyadiew Puoch personal foul
IND 80·POR 100
Q4·1:24
Frieda Buhner makes layup (Holly Winterburn assists)
·
IND 80·POR 100
Q4·1:25
Tyasha Harris lost ball turnover (Frieda Buhner steals)
·
IND 80·POR 98
Q4·1:30
Fever defensive team rebound
IND 80·POR 98
Q4·1:31
Sarah Ashlee Barker misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 80·POR 98
Q4·1:38
Grace VanSlooten vs. Holly Winterburn (Sarah Ashlee Barker gains possession)
· ·
IND 80·POR 98
Q4·1:42
Tyasha Harris vs. Sarah Ashlee Barker (Grace VanSlooten gains possession)
· ·
IND 80·POR 98
Q4·2:02
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 80·POR 98
Q4·2:02
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 79·POR 98
Q4·2:02
Sophie Cunningham misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 79·POR 98
Q4·2:02
Sarah Ashlee Barker shooting foul
IND 79·POR 98
Q4·2:13
Sarah Ashlee Barker steps out of bounds turnover
IND 79·POR 98
Q4·2:30
Tyasha Harris makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 79·POR 98
Q4·2:30
Luisa Geiselsoder enters the game for Emily Engstler
·
IND 78·POR 98
Q4·2:30
Holly Winterburn enters the game for Megan Gustafson
·
IND 78·POR 98
Q4·2:30
Nyadiew Puoch enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
IND 78·POR 98
Q4·2:30
Frieda Buhner enters the game for Carla Leite
·
IND 78·POR 98
Q4·2:30
Tyasha Harris makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 78·POR 98
Q4·2:30
Emily Engstler shooting foul
IND 77·POR 98

Betting line

IND -11.5·O/U 173.5·IND -550/POR +410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ortland Fire held off Indiana Fever, 100–84.

POR +11.5 cashed (IND lost outright). Total cleared the 173.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

POR

eFG%

shooting

45.7%

57.9%

TOV%

ball control

18.8%

12.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

34.6%

32.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

53.4%

27.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Kelsey MitchellIND · G
USG%.26287

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.0%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
62.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+350

Close price

+350

Open no-vig

21.3%

Close no-vig

21.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+39.2pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

IND

no live price

POR

★ best

+425DraftKings

edge +39.2pp · implied 18.3%

Book	IND	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-575	+425★	+39.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high

Rebounds

Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.9± 3.0high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Jordan HarrisonPOR
3.3± 1.1low

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop