May 28, 25sim 96
1477
8(H)82
EloWin probTime of year
IND
39Live8:57 - 3rd
POR
52Updated 9:28 PM ET
8:57 - 3RD+13POR
IND
4-3
3952
POR
5-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 372 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Updated 0s ago
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
9.3Game score
10
Pts
1
Reb
1
Ast
POR · top performer
Megan Gustafson
C · #17
11.7Game score
13
Pts
0
Reb
0
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Portland Fire · live
WNBA · Box score
8:57 - 3rd
IND4-3
3952
POR5-4
IND4-3POR5-4
IND
4-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | |
| 15 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | |
| 18 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| 15 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -8 | |
| Team | 39 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 10 | ||
| DNP: D. Dantas | ||||||||
POR
5-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +18 | |
| 16 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| 14 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +8 | |
| 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +8 | |
| Team | 52 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: S. Williams, K. Samuelson, H. Winterburn | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
33
FG %
44
9
Ast
12
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
May 20POR73@IND90
POR73@IND90May 31IND@PORtoday
IND@PORtodayAug 1IND@PORupcoming
IND@PORupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
173.5
High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
IND-55085%POR+41020%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
173.5
0.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
8:57 - 3rdGame flowIND ↔ POR
Recent swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 0.0
Just happened
Fire Full timeout
INDK. Mitchell
GLeading · 8:57 - 3rd · 18 min
10 PTS · 1 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 22 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
PORM. Gustafson
CLeading · 8:57 - 3rd · 14 min
13 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
On pace: 37 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
How it's going
POR lead IND 52-39 (8:57 - 3rd). M. Gustafson led with 13 PTS, 0 REB, 0 AST. POR have outscored the other side 29-15 in the 1st quarter.
Win probability
POR vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
25 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
GS 18
Bench(6)
14 PTS · 5 REB · 2 AST
GS 7
PORstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
39 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
GS 32
Bench(4)
13 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST
GS 6
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPOR2nd Quarter · 9:17 · 16-32
+6pp→ 78% WP
Emily Engstler · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)
IND2nd Quarter · 4.6 · 35-50
+9pp→ 19% WP
Teja Oblak · personal foul
IND2nd Quarter · 0.0 · 37-50
+11pp→ 21% WP
End of the 2nd Quarter
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 15 | 22 | 2 | 39 |
| POR | 29 | 21 | 2 | 52 |
Period scoring
IND won 1 · POR won 1
15
29
Q1
Boston 6
Gustafson 8
22
21
Q2
Mitchell 8
Engstler 5
2
2
Q3
Boston 2
Carleton 2
IND
POR
Shooting comparison
IND
POR
33%
10-30
FG
44%
19-43
10%
1-10
3PT
31%
4-13
90%
18-20
FT
100%
10-10
Play-by-play · 254 plays
period
event
player
- Q3·8:57
Fire Full timeout
IND 39·POR 52
- Q3·8:57
Emily Engstler offensive foul turnover
IND 39·POR 52
- Q3·8:57
Emily Engstler offensive charge
IND 39·POR 52
−2pp
- Q3·9:01
Lexie Hull personal foul
IND 39·POR 52
- Q3·9:18
Aliyah Boston makes driving layup (Lexie Hull assists)
·
IND 39·POR 52
−1pp
- Q3·9:38
Bridget Carleton makes driving layup
IND 37·POR 52
+5pp
- Q3·10:00
Monique Billings enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
IND 37·POR 50
- Q3·10:00
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Myisha Hines-Allen
·
IND 37·POR 50
- Q3·10:00
Carla Leite enters the game for Teja Oblak
·
IND 37·POR 50
- Q3·10:00
Nyadiew Puoch enters the game for Sarah Ashlee Barker
·
IND 37·POR 50
- Q2·0.0
End of the 2nd QuarterBIG MOMENT
IND 37·POR 50
−11pp
- Q2·4.6
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 37·POR 50
- Q2·4.6
Lexie Hull enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 36·POR 50
- Q2·4.6
Sophie Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 36·POR 50
−0.7pp
- Q2·4.6
Teja Oblak personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 35·POR 50
−9pp
- Q2·7.3
Teja Oblak enters the game for Carla Leite
·
IND 35·POR 50
- Q2·7.3
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 35·POR 50
- Q2·8.5
Myisha Hines-Allen misses driving floating jump shot
IND 35·POR 50
+0.9pp
- Q2·27.8
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes driving layup (Emily Engstler assists)
·
IND 35·POR 50
+4pp
- Q2·44.7
Sophie Cunningham makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aliyah Boston assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 35·POR 48
−5pp
- Q2·54.5
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
IND 32·POR 48
−0.5pp
- Q2·57.2
Sarah Ashlee Barker misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 32·POR 48
−1pp
- Q2·1:15
Aliyah Boston makes 4-foot layup (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 32·POR 48
−3pp
- Q2·1:23
Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound
IND 30·POR 48
- Q2·1:26
Sarah Ashlee Barker misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 30·POR 48
- Q2·1:31
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
IND 30·POR 48
- Q2·1:31
Bridget Carleton blocks Aliyah Boston 's 8-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
IND 30·POR 48
+10pp
- Q2·1:31
Fire Coach's Challenge
IND 30·POR 48
+5pp
- Q2·1:31
(01:31) [Fire] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Fire] retain their timeout
IND 30·POR 48
- Q2·1:34
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 30·POR 48
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
POR
Home
10-30
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
19-43
33
FG %
44
1-10
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
4-13
18-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
10-10
9
Assists
12
10
Turnovers
7
Betting line
IND -11.5·O/U 173.5·IND -550/POR +410
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q3away leadsPOR leads
Key moments · live
newest firstEnsemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
31.7%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
37%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Live · model intelligence
76% confidence
Win prob · home
89.5%
+28.6ppvs pre-game · POR favored
Leverage
30
medium
One swing game
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+350
Close price
+350
Open no-vig
21.3%
Close no-vig
21.3%
Line barely moved
Player props
Player projections
POR vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.4± 9.7low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 7.5low
- Carla LeitePOR14.7± 6.8low
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND6.6± 6.4low
- Monique BillingsIND5.1± 3.3low
- Sarah Ashlee BarkerPOR4.6± 3.6low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.0± 3.5low
- Carla LeitePOR4.0± 3.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND3.1± 2.1low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.4± 1.8low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.8± 0.9low
- Aliyah BostonIND0.7± 1.0low
Steals
- Bridget CarletonPOR2.0± 1.5low
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.3± 1.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
POR
45.4%
FG%
44.7
45.1%
32.1%
3PT %
32.6
▶33.8%
92.9
PPG
◀
85.4
81.8
22.3
Assists / G
◀
18.0
18.3
14.4
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.1