MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ATH

NYY

35-23

ATH

28-30

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

12,361 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

41.9%

open 40.7% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
37.2%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.6%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.8%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.02

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-163

Close price

-149

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

57.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.0pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

-162DraftKings

edge +2.0pp · implied 59.1%

ATH

no live price

Book	NYY	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	-162★	+134	+2.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low
Will WarrenNYY
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low
Will WarrenNYY
2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

ATH

.763

OPS

◀

.715

.735

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.326

5.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.32

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.60

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

NYY 4 · ATH 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	4
ATH	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.208	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
B. Rice1B	.304	3	0	1	1	0	2	2
A. JudgeRF	.248	4	0	0	1	0	1	0
C. BellingerLF	.267	3	1	0	1	0	2	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.239	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.264	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
R. McMahon3B	.208	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
A. WellsC	.180	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. VolpeSS	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CaballeroSS	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.C. EscarraC	.186	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	4	6	3	0	9	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.208

.304

.248

.267

.239

.264

.208

.180

.231

.263

.186

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. WeathersSP	6.2	6	5	5	3	10	107
C. DovalRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BirdRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	20
Team	8.0	8	6	6	3	11	129

Player

R. WeathersSP

6.2

107

C. DovalRP

0.1

J. BirdRP

1.0

Team

8.0

129

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. ThomasRF	.268	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
N. Kurtz1B	.283	4	2	3	2	1	0	1
S. LangeliersC	.293	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
B. RookerDH	.187	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.223	3	1	3	1	1	1	0
H. BolteCF	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
Z. Gelof3B	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
D. HernaizSS	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. ButlerRF	.162	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	6	8	6	3	3	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J.T. GinnSP	6.0	4	1	0	3	4	80
H. HarrisRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	31
J. SternerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
J. PerkinsRP	0.2	1	3	3	2	2	24
S. BarlowRP	0.1	0	0	0	3	0	23
Team	9.0	6	4	3	9	8	174

Team

NYY

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.