HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBTop 4
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -8.5pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    +1.8pphigh
  • MLBMid 5
    TB 2@LAA 4
    +58.0pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:41 - 2nd
    GS 34@SEA 32
    +0.9pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CIN
CIN

CIN

67-60

6
4
LAA

LAA

60-66

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
22,276 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

CIN

league avg

LAA

LAA

.708

OPS

.715

.704

.314

OBP

.319

.316

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.46

4.74

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.65

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.43

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 6 · LAA 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0102100026
LAA1000002104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. AdellLAA+46.1pp
  2. 2K. HayesCIN+37.7pp
  3. 3K. JansenLAA−35.9pp

CIN · top performer

CIN
Noelvi Marte

Noelvi Marte

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jo Adell

Jo Adell

RF

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlCF
.2674011001
G. LuxLF
.2805011000
E. De La CruzSS
.2753210011
M. AndujarDH
.3954132000
A. HaysLF
.2593000012
N. MarteRF
.3024122101
J. TrevinoC
.2564110000
K. Hayes3B
.2462110010
M. McLain2B
.2213010001
- S. SteerLF
.2400000000
- W. BensonRF
.2230000010
- S. Espinal3B
.2490000000
Team326116146

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
H. GreeneSP
6.163301298
G. AshcraftRP
0.22000114
L. MeyRP
1.01111022
T. SantillanRP
1.00000212
Team9.0944115146

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoSS
.2694011002
N. Schanuel1B
.2694000000
M. TroutCF
.2383120011
T. WardLF
.2374011002
J. AdellRF
.2334232201
Y. Moncada3B
.2334000002
T. d'ArnaudC
.2094110001
C. Moore2B
.1914010003
B. TeodosioLF
.2442000001
- L. Rengifo3B
.2492000002
Team354942115

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
K. HendricksSP
6.08443393
A. ChafinRP
1.0100008
R. ZeferjahnRP
1.00000212
K. JansenRP
1.02221122
Team9.0116646135

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • G. Ashcraft
    21 pitches·10% CSW
    • SL
      57%·89.8 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      43%·97.5 mph·0% whiff

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

6

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Aug 19CINCIN4@LAALAA1
Aug 20CINCIN6@LAALAA4today
Aug 21CINCIN1@LAALAA2

Season series

CIN leads series 2-0

Aug 19CINCIN4@LAALAA1
Aug 20CINCIN6@LAALAA4today
Aug 21CINCIN1@LAALAA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 33pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CINCIN
N. Marte

N. Marte

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

H. Greene

H. Greene

SP

Starting pitcher12-K game

6.1 IP · 12 K · 3 ER · 6 H

LAALAA
J. Adell

J. Adell

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CIN beat LAA 6-4. Adell's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 7th Inning · 4-3
+13pp→ 34% WP

Neto · singled to left, d'Arnaud scored, Moore to second.

LAABottom 8th Inning · 4-4
+33pp→ 51% WP

Adell · homered to left (371 feet).

CINTop 9th Inning · 4-4
+16pp→ 73% WP

Benson · walked, Hayes to second, Trevino to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0102100026
LAA1000002104

Period scoring

CIN won 4 · LAA won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Ward 1

1
0

Inn 2

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Andujar 1

1
0

Inn 5

Andujar 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Adell 1

0
1

Inn 8

Adell 1

2
0

Inn 9

Friedl 1

CIN
LAA

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  3. B9

    Rengifo struck out looking.

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  10. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Luis Rengifo

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  11. B9

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  12. B9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

    −3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  17. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  18. B9

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  19. B9

    d'Arnaud popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

    −12pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  22. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Travis d'Arnaud

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  23. B9

    Santillan relieved Mey

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  24. B9

    Espinal at second base.

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  27. T9

    ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  28. T9

    Lux doubled to right, Hayes scored, Benson thrown out at home.

    · ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 6·LAA 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CIN 5·LAA 4

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

4

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

17

TB

17

1

HR

2

4

BB

1

6

K

15

9

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    7.0± 4.0low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    5.8± 2.5low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.1± 1.4medium
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.9± 2.3medium
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jose SiriLAA
    0.8± 1.5medium
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.8± 1.6medium
  • Trey ManciniLAA
    0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.2± 3.8low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 1.8low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    48.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.9%

    P(LAA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.3%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.