MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PIT

PIT

58-75

STL

65-68

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

18,602 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.8%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.1low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.6± 3.3low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.7low

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.2± 0.9high
Bryan TorresSTL
1.2± 1.1low
Brandon LowePIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryan TorresSTL
2.2± 2.6low
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.1± 2.0high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.8± 0.9high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.5high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.8± 2.1low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.7± 2.3low
Andre PallanteSTL
2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 8 · STL 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8
STL	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Triolo★3B	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.483
S. Horwitz★1B	2-5	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT24.85
B. Reynolds★LF	2-5	5	2	2	1	0	0	3
SPRINT27.969
O. Cruz★CF	0-4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1
A. McCutchen★DH	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	1	1
SPRINT27.662
J. Suwinski★RF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
H. Davis★C	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	2
SPRINT27.765
L. Peguero★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. Kiner-Falefa★2B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team	11-37	37	8	11	7	1	2	11

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-5

2-5

2-5

0-4

1-3

1-4

1-3

0-4

2-4

Team

11-37

	Pitching
M. Keller★SP	6.0	3	3	3	1	9	1
K. NicolasRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	0
I. MattsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	9.0	3	3	3	2	13	1

Pitching

Player

M. Keller★SP

6.0

K. NicolasRP

2.0

I. MattsonRP

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
L. Nootbaar★LF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
I. Herrera★DH	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.513
A. Burleson★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.513
W. Contreras★1B	0-3	3	1	0	1	0	0	1
SPRINT26.838
N. Gorman★3B	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT257
M. Winn★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Saggese★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Walker★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. Pozo★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	3-29	29	3	3	3	1	2	13

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI