MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CIN

CIN

75-75

116

STL

73-78

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

18,095 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.9%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
50.9%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.4%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.1± 2.8low
Dustin MaySTL
5.7± 3.6low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.2low

Hits

Blaze JordanSTL
1.2± 1.1low
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.5± 1.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
2.4± 3.6low
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.3± 1.8high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
1.0± 1.6low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.4high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.8high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.1± 1.8low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

STL

.710

OPS

.717

▶

.721

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

4.59

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.06

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.32

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 11 · STL 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	1	4	11
STL	0	1	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.261	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
N. MarteRF	.276	4	2	1	0	0	1	2
M. AndujarDH	.351	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. HaysLF	.266	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.297	5	3	3	2	1	0	0
T. StephensonC	.227	4	1	2	3	0	1	1
E. De La CruzSS	.263	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
K. Hayes3B	.260	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.227	5	2	2	2	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.232	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.243	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	11	13	10	1	5	8

Player

.261

.276

.351

.266

.297

.227

.263

.260

.227

.232

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. LittellSP	5.2	5	4	4	0	3	86
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19
T. SantillanRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	15
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
E. PaganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	10	6	6	0	8	147

Player

5.2

1.0

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.281	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.284	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. Burleson1B	.281	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.257	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
L. NootbaarLF	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.238	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
T. SaggeseLF	.259	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. CrooksC	.083	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
V. Scott IICF	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.210	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.184	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	10	6	0	0	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	6.0	4	3	2	1	6	77
C. RoycroftRP	0.1	2	3	3	1	0	14
J. KingRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	6
R. FernandezRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	18
K. LeahySP	1.0	4	4	4	1	2	33
G. GraceffoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	13	11	10	5	8	162

Team

CIN

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.