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  • MLBEnd 5
    DET 1@CHW 2
    +21.7ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
PIT

PIT

57-75

6
7
STL

STL

65-67

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
17,675 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

PIT 6 · STL 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1030001016
STL0100500017

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    238
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 95
    246
    30(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    307
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    247
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 94
    111
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 93
    12
    26(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 25·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT57-75
6
7
STL65-67
PIT57-75·STL65-67
PIT

PIT

57-75

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. SimonR. Simon★2B
2-55121002
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44111002
SPRINT28.586
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-55122103
SPRINT27.969
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-22112110
SPRINT24.85
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-33000010
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.483
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
0-11100020
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-44010002
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
0-33100000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa2B
0-11000000
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-11000000
Team9-33336962410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. OviedoJ. Oviedo★SP
4.0311150
A. HeaneyA. HeaneySP
0.2555010
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.1100000
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
2.0100050
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
0.2111001
Team8.211771111
STL

STL

65-67

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-55000001
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-55111002
SPRINT2872
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
4-55241100
SPRINT25.513
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44112002
SPRINT26.838
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33211012
SPRINT257
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
2-44021001
SPRINT27.354
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44010000
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-44000002
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
1-33111001
Team11-373771171111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
6.0644272
K. LeahyK. LeahySP
1.0110120
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
0.1100100
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.2111010
Team9.09654102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • J. Oviedo
    53 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      34%·87.9 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      11%·77.1 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    36 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.4 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.0 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      22%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Heaney
    31 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      48%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      23%·83.0 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      16%·80.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      47%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      37%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      16%·81.2 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      40%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.0 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • M. McGreevy
    92 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      27%·92.8 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      26%·91.9 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      5%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Leahy
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • CU
      42%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      57%·97.7 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      24%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·91.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Romero
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      38%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·80.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

11

6

Runs

7

2

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 5-2

May 5PITPIT3@STLSTL6
May 6PITPIT1@STLSTL2
May 7PITPIT0@STLSTL5
Aug 25PITPIT6@STLSTL7today
Aug 26PITPIT8@STLSTL3
Aug 27PITPIT2@STLSTL1
Aug 28PITPIT1@STLSTL4

Season series

Series tied 5-5

Apr 7STLSTL4@PITPIT8
Apr 8STLSTL5@PITPIT3
Apr 9STLSTL1@PITPIT2
May 5PITPIT3@STLSTL6
May 6PITPIT1@STLSTL2
May 7PITPIT0@STLSTL5
Jun 30STLSTL0@PITPIT7
Jul 1STLSTL0@PITPIT1
Jul 2STLSTL0@PITPIT5
Aug 25PITPIT6@STLSTL7today
Aug 26PITPIT8@STLSTL3
Aug 27PITPIT2@STLSTL1
Aug 28PITPIT1@STLSTL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 9th Inning

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

J. Oviedo

J. Oviedo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

STL beat PIT 7-6. Burleson's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Win probability

STL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLBottom 5th Inning · 4-4
+27pp→ 68% WP

Contreras · singled to center, Winn scored and Burleson scored.

PITTop 9th Inning · 6-6
+38pp→ 51% WP

Simon · doubled to right, Peguero scored.

STLBottom 9th Inning · 6-7
+45pp→ 100% WP

Burleson · homered to center (409 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1030001016
STL0100500017

Period scoring

PIT won 3 · STL won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Horwitz 1

0
1

Inn 2

Church 1

3
0

Inn 3

Reynolds 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
5

Inn 5

Contreras 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Gonzales 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Simon 1

Burleson 1

PIT
STL

Play-by-play · 582 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 7

  2. B9

    Burleson homered to center (409 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 7

    +45pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 7

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  6. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Alec Burleson

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 7

  7. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  8. B9

    Winn lined out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

    −5pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  10. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Masyn Winn

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  11. B9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  12. B9

    Nootbaar flied out to center.

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  14. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Lars Nootbaar

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  15. B9

    Santana relieved Ramírez

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  16. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 6·STL 6

  17. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 6·STL 6

  18. T9

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  19. T9

    Reynolds struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  25. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  26. T9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  27. T9

    N. Gonzales grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Simon out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

    +10pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  29. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

  30. T9

    ·

    PIT 6·STL 6

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

STL

Home

6

Runs

7

9

Hits

11

2

Errors

1

18

TB

16

2

HR

1

4

BB

1

10

K

11

19

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.3%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.7%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.