MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

O'Hoppe singled to left, Madrigal scored. → win prob 83→89% LAA

TOP 5TH+4LAA

40-25

LAA

27-42

MLB · At bat

Top 50-20 outs

Pitcher· LAA

S. Aldegheri

4.0 IP, 3 K, 0 ER

Batter· TB

C. Simpson

0-1

LastPitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

65.0%

LAA wins · current

Pre-game: 62.2% TB

TB 0 · 4 LAA

LAA +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsLAA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingLAABottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 83% WP
Madrigal · reached on infield single to second, Peraza scored.
SwingLAABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 73% WP
Mancini · tripled to right, Trout scored and Adell scored.

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.10

S. McClanahan

6-3 · 2.85 ERA

S. Aldegheri

1-1 · 2.25 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

38.4%

open 39.2% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
36.4%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.1%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
36.5%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+62.6ppvs pre-game · LAA favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.50

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-171

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.9pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

★ best

-163DraftKings

edge +2.9pp · implied 59.3%

LAA

no live price

Book	TB	LAA	Best edge
DraftKings	-163★	+135	+2.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

LAA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.1± 1.4medium
Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.9± 2.3medium
Zach NetoLAA
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.5medium
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.6medium
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAA

.721

OPS

◀

.715

.704

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.50

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.43

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.66

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

The One modelEdge

● Live

TB★

Rays

53-25

vs62.2%TB

LAA

Angels

29-46

TB 62.2%win prob37.8% LAA

TB 1556 · LAA 1435Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. DiazDH	.332	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.275	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.297	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. SlaterRF	.214	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Williamson2B	.252	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SimpsonLF	.270	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.268	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		13	0	1	0	0	2	3

Player

AVG

RBI

.332

.267

.275

.297

.214

.252

.270

.268

.211

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. McClanahanSP	4.0	8	4	4	1	7	74
Team	4.0	8	4	4	1	7	74

Player

S. McClanahanSP

4.0

Team

4.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.226	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. TroutCF	.226	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. AdellRF	.241	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.269	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Mancini1B	.364	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. GuzmanSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Madrigal3B	.375	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
L. O'HoppeC	.216	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. SiriLF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		20	4	8	4	0	1	7