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  • MLBEnd 1
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    +38.1pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1DET
DET

DET

71-52

4
3
MIN

MIN

57-64

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
24,123 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 4 · MIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
DET000201000014
MIN003000000003

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Aug 14·Final/SeriesDET wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

LF

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Edouard Julien

Edouard Julien

2B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
DET71-52
4
3
MIN57-64
DET71-52·MIN57-64
DET

DET

71-52

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-55111001
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44001000
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-55120000
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44112111
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-33000010
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-44000000
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000002
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
0-33000001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT27.251
W. PerezW. PerezRF
0-11000000
Team6-3737464126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
7.0633231
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.1000020
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.1100010
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.1000020
Team11.0733281
MIN

MIN

57-64

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-55110001
SPRINT27.867
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-55110000
SPRINT29.597
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-44001012
SPRINT26.326
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-55011002
SPRINT28.688
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000012
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44010001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010000
A. RodenA. Roden★LF
0-44000000
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
2-33121100
SPRINT26.225
Team7-3838373128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
5.1433041
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.2000100
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
1.0000010
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
1.0000000
C. SandsC. SandsRP
2.0100110
E. RamirezE. RamirezRP
1.0110000
Team11.0643261

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Skubal
    99 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.2 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      26%·87.4 mph·53% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      15%·90.4 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      38%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      10%·82.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.3 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Montero
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FS
      56%·88.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      47%·87.6 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      40%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • B. Ober
    89 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      34%·90.3 mph·35% whiff
    • CH
      27%·83.6 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      15%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·77.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      6%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·74.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      36%·88.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      24%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      16%·94.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      38%·91.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      38%·92.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      15%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Kriske
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      55%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Ramirez
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      73%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      9%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·90.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      56%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·91.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      11%·78.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 5-2

Apr 12DETDET7@MINMIN6
Apr 12DETDET4@MINMIN0
Apr 13DETDET1@MINMIN5
Aug 14DETDET4@MINMIN3today
Aug 16DETDET7@MINMIN0
Aug 16DETDET8@MINMIN5
Aug 17DETDET1@MINMIN8

Season series

DET leads series 6-4

Apr 12DETDET7@MINMIN6
Apr 12DETDET4@MINMIN0
Apr 13DETDET1@MINMIN5
Jun 27MINMIN4@DETDET1
Jun 28MINMIN5@DETDET10
Jun 29MINMIN0@DETDET3
Aug 4MINMIN3@DETDET6
Aug 5MINMIN6@DETDET3
Aug 6MINMIN9@DETDET4
Aug 14DETDET4@MINMIN3today
Aug 16DETDET7@MINMIN0
Aug 16DETDET8@MINMIN5
Aug 17DETDET1@MINMIN8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 26pp · Bottom 10th Inning

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
E. Julien

E. Julien

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H

How it ended

DET beat MIN 4-3. Martin's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

MIN vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 4th Inning · 2-3
+20pp→ 42% WP

Greene · homered to right (392 feet), Carpenter scored.

DETBottom 10th Inning · 3-3
+26pp→ 43% WP

Martin · grounded into fielder's choice to first, Roden out at home.

DETBottom 11th Inning · 4-3
+17pp→ 100% WP

Lewis · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
DET000201000014
MIN003000000003

Period scoring

DET won 3 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Julien 1

2
0

Inn 4

Greene 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Keith 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
0

Inn 11

Torres 1

DET
MIN

Play-by-play · 615 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    DET 4·MIN 3

  2. B11

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  3. B11

    Lewis struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

    −17pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  5. B11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  6. B11

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  7. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  8. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  9. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  10. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  11. B11

    Rafael Montero pitches to Royce Lewis

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  12. B11

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  13. B11

    Keaschall grounded out to third, Buxton to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

    −14pp

  14. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  15. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  16. B11

    Rafael Montero pitches to Luke Keaschall

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  17. B11

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  18. B11

    Jeffers struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

    −7pp

  19. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  20. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  21. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  22. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  23. B11

    Rafael Montero pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  24. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    DET 4·MIN 3

  25. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    DET 4·MIN 3

  26. T11

    ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  27. T11

    Greene grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Carpenter out at second.

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  28. T11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  29. T11

    Erasmo Ramirez pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

  30. T11

    ·

    DET 4·MIN 3

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

4

Runs

3

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

11

TB

12

1

HR

1

2

BB

2

6

K

8

10

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 16, 25sim 98
    104
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 98
    67
    9(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    73
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 96
    170
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    176
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    281
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

MIN vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    48.6%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.1%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.8%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.