MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7DET

DET

72-52

MIN

57-65

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

27,282 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.0%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
47.5%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.4%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.5%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low

Hits

Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.9± 2.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.4± 2.2high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

MIN

.705

OPS

.717

▶

.718

.315

OBP

.319

.318

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.63

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.86

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.2

K / 9

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 7 · MIN 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. Keith3B	.260	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.264	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.266	5	1	0	1	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson1B	.241	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
W. PerezRF	.261	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
D. DinglerC	.272	4	1	2	3	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.260	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. BaezSS	.271	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
T. SweeneySS	.202	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	7	10	7	0	3	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.260

.264

.266

.267

.241

.261

.272

.260

.271

.202

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. MortonSP	6.0	2	0	0	3	5	98
T. KahnleRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
B. HurterRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	23
B. HornRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	27
Team	9.0	2	0	0	7	7	166

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

166

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. LarnachLF	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. BuxtonCF	.279	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.220	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
L. Keaschall2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
M. WallnerRF	.212	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. LeeSS	.244	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.227	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. Julien2B	.192	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. GasperC	.123	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		27	0	2	0	0	7	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
P. OhlRP	2.1	8	7	3	2	1	67
J. UrenaRP	5.2	2	0	0	1	3	76
E. RamirezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	10	7	3	3	5	151

Team

DET

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.