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Live · 6
  • MLBEnd 1
    ARI 0@SEA 0
    -5.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    PHI 0@LAD 0
    +4.5ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +42.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    SF 0@COL 4
    +58.9pplow
  • NBA9:44 - 4th
    SA 92@OKC 83
    -62.1pphigh
  • WNBA45.3 - 4th
    IND 82@POR 100
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5CIN
CIN

CIN

68-63

6
1
ARI

ARI

64-67

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
25,496 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 6 · ARI 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000010506
ARI1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 16, 25sim 97
    104
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 97
    213
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 97
    251
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    121
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    174
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    64
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Spencer Steer

Spencer Steer

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN68-63
6
1
ARI64-67
CIN68-63·ARI64-67
CIN

CIN

68-63

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-55011000
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
2-55220000
SPRINT28.992
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-55010001
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
3-55131000
SPRINT27.354
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
1-44010001
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44123102
SPRINT28.483
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-22000020
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33110001
SPRINT28.586
W. BanfieldW. Banfield★C
0-22000002
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11100000
Team11-36366115147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
6.0111390
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0000010
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0100110
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000010
Team9.02114120
ARI

ARI

64-67

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-33110012
SPRINT26.838
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-22010021
SPRINT29.496
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-33001001
SPRINT25.818
P. SmithP. Smith★1B
0-33000011
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-44000001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-44000002
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-33000002
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-33000000
Team2-29291210412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
6.0411170
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
0.1100200
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
1.0111000
J. BurgosJ. BurgosRP
0.1444101
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.1100000
Team9.01166471

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • B. Singer
    95 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      42%·91.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      28%·82.5 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.0 mph·55% whiff
    • FC
      11%·87.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      2%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      63%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      25%·86.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      50%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·89.9 mph·60% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      100%·96.2 mph·25% whiff

ARI

  • Z. Gallen
    95 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.3 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      27%·80.3 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      17%·83.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      7%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      2%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Burgos
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      56%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·92.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      33%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Morillo
    13 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      46%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·99.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • CH
      50%·75.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      50%·91.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

2

6

Runs

1

3

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Aug 23CINCIN5@ARIARI6
Aug 24CINCIN1@ARIARI10
Aug 24CINCIN6@ARIARI1today

Season series

CIN wins series 4-2

Jun 6ARIARI3@CINCIN4
Jun 7ARIARI1@CINCIN13
Jun 8ARIARI2@CINCIN4
Aug 23CINCIN5@ARIARI6
Aug 24CINCIN1@ARIARI10
Aug 24CINCIN6@ARIARI1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 8th Inning

CINCIN
S. Steer

S. Steer

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat ARI 6-1. Steer's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 46% WP

Marte · tripled to center, Marte scored on throwing error by shortstop Perdomo.

ARIBottom 7th Inning · 1-1
+21pp→ 56% WP

Alexander · struck out swinging.

CINTop 8th Inning · 5-1
+22pp→ 96% WP

Steer · homered to left (397 feet), Hays scored and Benson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000010506
ARI1000000001

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · ARI won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 7

5
0

Inn 8

Steer 3

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
ARI

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  3. B9

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  8. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Blaze Alexander

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  9. B9

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  10. B9

    McCarthy popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  13. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Jake McCarthy

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  14. B9

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  15. B9

    Smith popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  18. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Pavin Smith

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  19. B9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  22. T9

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  23. T9

    Benson grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  27. T9

    John Curtiss pitches to Will Benson

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  28. T9

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  29. T9

    Hays flied out to right.

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 6·ARI 1

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

6

Runs

1

11

Hits

2

3

Errors

1

17

TB

4

1

HR

0

4

BB

4

7

K

12

14

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    50.4%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.4%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.5%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.