MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYY

NYY

65-57

STL

61-62

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

31,169 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.2%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.5%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.7± 2.0low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.5± 2.9low
Will WarrenNYY
6.1± 3.3low

Hits

Ben RiceNYY
1.2± 1.3high
Bryan TorresSTL
1.2± 1.1low
Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ben RiceNYY
2.4± 2.8high
Bryan TorresSTL
2.2± 2.6low
Cody BellingerNYY
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.5high
Anthony VolpeNYY
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.8± 2.1low
Andre PallanteSTL
2.6± 2.5low
Dustin MaySTL
2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · STL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
STL	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
T. Grisham★CF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	2	2
SPRINT26.735
B. Rice★1B	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	3
SPRINT26.941
A. Judge★RF	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	1	0
C. Bellinger★LF	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	1-3	3	2	1	2	1	1	1
SPRINT28.175
A. Volpe★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Dominguez★LF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT26.838
R. McMahon★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
J. Caballero★SS	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
SPRINT28.278

Team	7-33	33	4	7	4	1	7	12

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

2-5

0-4

0-5

1-3

0-4

1-4

1-2

2-3

Team

7-33

	Pitching
L. Gil★SP	5.1	4	1	1	3	4	0
M. Leiter Jr.RP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0
C. DovalRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	2	0
L. WeaverRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team	9.0	6	3	3	5	10	0

Pitching

Player

5.1

0.2

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
L. Nootbaar★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Winn★SS	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
SPRINT2872
A. Burleson★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. Herrera★DH	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.513
N. Gorman★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. Walker★RF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. Saggese★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
P. Pages★C	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
V. Scott II★CF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT29.798
Y. PozoC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	6-29	29	3	6	2	0	5	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

L. Nootbaar★LF

1-4