MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIN

58-60

MIN

56-61

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

26,746 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.8%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.5%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.2%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.1± 3.0low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.3± 1.4high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.9± 2.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.4± 2.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.8high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIN

.694

OPS

.717

▶

.718

.316

OBP

.319

.318

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.63

4.44

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.86

1.38

WHIP

1.31

1.39

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

KC 3 · MIN 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
KC	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
MIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. YastrzemskiLF	.214	5	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Garcia3B	.303	4	1	3	0	0	2	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.258	5	1	1	2	1	1	0
S. PerezC	.246	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Frazier2B	.302	5	0	4	1	0	0	0
J. India2B	.236	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.200	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. MaileC	.294	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. IsbelCF	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Loftin2B	.202	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		39	3	9	3	1	8	8

Player

.214

.303

.258

.246

.302

.236

.200

.294

.263

.202

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. BergertSP	5.2	4	2	2	1	8	89
A. ZerpaRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	15
L. ErcegRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	12
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
C. EstevezRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	0	9
Team	10.2	7	5	5	2	12	146

Player

5.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

Team

10.2

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.267	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.230	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
R. JeffersC	.271	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
L. Keaschall2B	.415	5	1	3	2	1	0	1
A. RodenLF	.172	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. LarnachLF	.243	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. LeeSS	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GasperC	.137	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
R. Fitzgerald3B	.286	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
E. Julien2B	.196	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.236	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	5	7	5	2	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. UrenaRP	3.0	3	1	1	4	1	73
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
P. OhlRP	2.2	1	0	0	1	0	36
C. SandsRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	9
B. KriskeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
J. TopaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20
M. TonkinRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	2	38
Team	11.0	9	3	3	8	8	202

Team

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.