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FINAL+7PIT
CIN

CIN

60-56

0
7
PIT

PIT

50-66

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
20,339 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CIN 0 · PIT 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000000000
PIT300101207

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Aug 7·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Cincinnati Reds, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN60-56
0
7
PIT50-66
CIN60-56·PIT50-66
CIN

CIN

60-56

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44010003
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-44000002
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
3-44030001
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000001
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-44000002
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-33000000
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
M. AndujarM. AndujarDH
0-11000000
Team9-35350900011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SingerB. Singer★SP
3.2644421
S. MollS. MollRP
0.2000100
L. MeyL. MeyRP
0.2200010
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0232201
Y. ZuluetaY. ZuluetaRP
2.0000120
Team8.01076852
PIT

PIT

50-66

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-44111011
SPRINT24.85
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-55010001
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-44121111
SPRINT27.969
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44111010
SPRINT28.483
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-11100041
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
0-44000010
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-44122000
SPRINT28.483
H. DavisH. Davis★C
2-44222101
SPRINT27.765
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44010000
Team10-34347107285
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
6.0700080
C. SandersC. SandersRP
1.0000000
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.0100020
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
1.0100010
Team9.09000110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • B. Singer
    86 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      35%·92.4 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      22%·82.7 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      13%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·87.5 mph·17% whiff
  • B. Suter
    37 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      30%·78.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. Zulueta
    33 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      48%·87.3 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • S. Moll
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      69%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • L. Mey
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • SL
      55%·86.7 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      45%·99.3 mph·33% whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      36%·98.6 mph·21% whiff
    • ST
      20%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.9 mph·63% whiff
    • FS
      8%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·92.1 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Borucki
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FS
      40%·84.1 mph·75% whiff
    • SL
      40%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·81.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Sanders
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      40%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·83.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

0

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 4-3

May 19CINCIN7@PITPIT1
May 20CINCIN0@PITPIT1
May 21CINCIN1@PITPIT3
Aug 7CINCIN0@PITPIT7today
Aug 8CINCIN2@PITPIT3
Aug 9CINCIN2@PITPIT1
Aug 10CINCIN14@PITPIT8

Season series

CIN leads series 4-3

Apr 11PITPIT3@CINCIN5
Apr 12PITPIT2@CINCIN5
Apr 13PITPIT0@CINCIN4
May 19CINCIN7@PITPIT1
May 20CINCIN0@PITPIT1
May 21CINCIN1@PITPIT3
Aug 7CINCIN0@PITPIT7today
Aug 8CINCIN2@PITPIT3
Aug 9CINCIN2@PITPIT1
Aug 10CINCIN14@PITPIT8
Sep 23PITPIT4@CINCIN2
Sep 24PITPIT4@CINCIN3
Sep 25PITPIT1@CINCIN2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CINCIN
G. Lux

G. Lux

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 7 H

How it ended

PIT beat CIN 7-0.

Win probability

PIT vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 64% WP

Hays · grounded into double play, second to first, De La Cruz out at second.

PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 72% WP

Reynolds · homered to left center (391 feet).

PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+11pp→ 87% WP

Triolo · singled to center, Cruz scored and McCutchen scored, Triolo to second, Suwinski to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000000000
PIT30010120—7

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · PIT won 4

0
3

Inn 1

Triolo 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Horwitz 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Cruz 1

0
2

Inn 7

Davis 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CIN
PIT

Play-by-play · 596 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  2. T9

    Andujar flied out to center.

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  5. T9

    Kyle Nicolas pitches to Miguel Andujar

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  6. T9

    Andujar hit for Trevino

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  7. T9

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  8. T9

    Marte struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  15. T9

    Kyle Nicolas pitches to Noelvi Marte

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  16. T9

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  17. T9

    Steer popped out to first.

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  24. T9

    Kyle Nicolas pitches to Spencer Steer

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  25. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  26. T9

    Lux singled to right.

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  29. T9

    Kyle Nicolas pitches to Gavin Lux

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

  30. T9

    Nicolas relieved Borucki

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 7

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

0

Runs

7

9

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

11

TB

16

0

HR

2

0

BB

8

11

K

5

15

LOB

21

Player projections

PIT vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    48.0%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.4%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.2%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    64
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    67
    9(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    104
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    73
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    186
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs