MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6STL

MIA

50-55

STL

55-53

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

20,510 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.5%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.1%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.2± 2.2low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.7low
Dustin MaySTL
4.7± 3.0low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 1.4high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Bryan TorresSTL
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Bryan TorresSTL
2.2± 2.6low
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.9± 1.6high
Ivan HerreraSTL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.8± 1.3high
Javier SanojaMIA
0.8± 1.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.6± 3.8low
Janson JunkMIA
3.0± 3.8low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

MIA 1 · STL 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
STL	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
X. Edwards★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanchez★RF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
SPRINT25.818
A. Ramirez★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Hernandez★LF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT28.483
O. Lopez★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Hicks★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Wagaman★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. Pauley★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.326
D. Myers★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Winkler2B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	4-31	31	1	4	1	0	2	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

0-2

0-4

1-4

0-3

0-4

1-3

1-3

0-3

1-1

Team

4-31

	Pitching
E. Cabrera★SP	6.0	4	2	1	3	4	1
J. SimpsonRP	0.1	1	4	3	2	0	0
L. BacharRP	1.2	3	1	1	0	3	0
Team	8.0	8	7	5	5	7	1

Pitching

Player

E. Cabrera★SP

6.0

J. SimpsonRP

0.1

L. BacharRP

1.2

Team

8.0

	Batting
B. Donovan★3B	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
I. Herrera★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson★1B	1-2	2	2	1	2	1	1	0
SPRINT25.513
W. Contreras★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Winn★SS	3-4	4	1	3	3	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
J. Walker★RF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT28.891
Y. Pozo★C	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Saggese★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
V. Scott II★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT29.798
G. Hampson2B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team	8-32	32	7	8	6	1	5	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI