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FINAL+1ATL
ATL

ATL

53-68

4
3
NYM

NYM

64-57

Citi Field · Queens, New York
41,782 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 4 · NYM 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0001010204
NYM0010020003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    242
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    92
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    94
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 95
    14
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 95
    244
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    291
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Aug 14·Final/SeriesATL wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into New York Mets and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ozzie Albies

Ozzie Albies

2B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor

SS

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL53-68
4
3
NYM64-57
ATL53-68·NYM64-57
ATL

ATL

53-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-55010001
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44010011
SPRINT25.513
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44110000
SPRINT26.632
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33000011
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
3-44131001
SPRINT27.148
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
3-44133101
SPRINT27.354
V. BrujanV. Brujan★SS
0-44000001
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-44000000
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-44000002
Team9-3636494128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
7.0532261
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0100010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
Team9.0632281
NYM

NYM

64-57

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
3-44231100
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-33110011
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-33011001
SPRINT28.278
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.920
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44000001
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-33000002
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-22000011
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-22000000
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000000
Team6-3030363128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. SengaK. Senga★SP
5.2522171
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.1200000
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0222100
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0000010
Team9.0944281

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • B. Elder
    87 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      37%·91.4 mph·6% whiff
    • FF
      30%·92.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      28%·83.1 mph·42% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      67%·85.4 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      29%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.1 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • K. Senga
    93 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.6 mph·36% whiff
    • FO
      26%·83.0 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      22%·89.9 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·89.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      3%·67.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      2%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      72%·99.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·88.0 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      82%·83.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      18%·74.1 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·91.3 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 4-3

Jun 23ATLATL3@NYMNYM2
Jun 24ATLATL7@NYMNYM4
Jun 25ATLATL3@NYMNYM7
Jun 26ATLATL0@NYMNYM4
Aug 12ATLATL5@NYMNYM13
Aug 13ATLATL11@NYMNYM6
Aug 14ATLATL4@NYMNYM3today

Season series

ATL leads series 7-3

Jun 17NYMNYM4@ATLATL5
Jun 18NYMNYM0@ATLATL5
Jun 19NYMNYM1@ATLATL7
Jun 23ATLATL3@NYMNYM2
Jun 24ATLATL7@NYMNYM4
Jun 25ATLATL3@NYMNYM7
Jun 26ATLATL0@NYMNYM4
Aug 12ATLATL5@NYMNYM13
Aug 13ATLATL11@NYMNYM6
Aug 14ATLATL4@NYMNYM3today
Aug 22NYMNYM12@ATLATL7
Aug 23NYMNYM9@ATLATL2
Aug 24NYMNYM3@ATLATL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 8th Inning

ATLATL
O. Albies

O. Albies

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
F. Lindor

F. Lindor

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

K. Senga

K. Senga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat NYM 4-3. Harris II's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 61% WP

Albies · singled to left, Baldwin scored, Harris II to second.

NYMBottom 6th Inning · 2-3
+18pp→ 76% WP

Alonso · singled to left, J. Soto scored.

ATLTop 8th Inning · 3-3
+29pp→ 51% WP

Harris II · doubled to center, White scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0001010204
NYM0010020003

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · NYM won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Lindor 1

1
0

Inn 4

Albies 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Albies 1

Nimmo 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

II 1

0
0

Inn 9

ATL
NYM

Play-by-play · 510 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  2. B9

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  3. B9

    Mullins lined out to center.

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  6. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Cedric Mullins

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  7. B9

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  8. B9

    McNeil struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

    −7pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  13. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jeff McNeil

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  14. B9

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  15. B9

    Alonso grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

    −9pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  17. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Pete Alonso

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  18. B9

    Iglesias relieved Lee

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  21. T9

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  22. T9

    Olson flied out to left.

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

    +0.6pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  25. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Matt Olson

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  26. T9

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  27. T9

    Profar grounded out to second.

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

    +1pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 4·NYM 3

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

4

Runs

3

9

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

14

TB

9

1

HR

1

2

BB

2

8

K

8

12

LOB

6

Player projections

NYM vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    56.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.8%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.81 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278