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Live · 8
  • MLBTop 3
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -14.8pphigh
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    +5.7ppmedium
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    -33.7ppmedium
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    +10.4pphigh
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    -10.1ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2STL
STL

STL

68-69

4
2
CIN

CIN

68-68

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
32,076 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 4 · CIN 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0002001104
CIN1000001002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 1, 25sim 95
    92
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    12
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 95
    154
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 95
    33
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 95
    14
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    242
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Pedro Pages

Pedro Pages

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Matt McLain

Matt McLain

2B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL68-69
4
2
CIN68-68
STL68-69·CIN68-68
STL

STL

68-69

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-55000002
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44010010
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
2-55020001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44111111
SPRINT26.838
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-33100010
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-33000012
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-33110012
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-33111102
SPRINT25.716
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
1-33012012
SPRINT28.586
Team7-33334742612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
6.0511200
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
0.1111101
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.1000000
K. LeahyK. LeahySP
1.1200000
Team9.0822301
CIN

CIN

68-68

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-33000020
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.992
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT2872
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-44020000
SPRINT26.530
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
1-22011010
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-44010000
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-44010000
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-22000000
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-44111100
SPRINT28.586
A. HaysA. HaysLF
0-11000000
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11000000
W. BanfieldW. BanfieldC
0-11000000
Team8-3434282130
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
5.0322470
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0100220
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0111001
Z. MaxwellZ. MaxwellUN
1.0111031
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0100000
Team9.07446122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. McGreevy
    93 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      28%·91.7 mph·6% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      20%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·84.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alcala
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      56%·98.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      19%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·98.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Leahy
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      31%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·87.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      13%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      56%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      44%·81.9 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    96 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.8 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.9 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      1%·89.6 mph·— whiff
  • S. Barlow
    30 pitches·37% CSW
    • ST
      37%·81.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Phillips
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      56%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Suter
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      47%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·81.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 4-3

Apr 28STLSTL1@CINCIN3
Apr 29STLSTL0@CINCIN0
Apr 30STLSTL6@CINCIN0
Apr 30STLSTL9@CINCIN1
May 1STLSTL1@CINCIN9
Aug 29STLSTL7@CINCIN5
Aug 30STLSTL4@CINCIN2today
Aug 31STLSTL4@CINCIN7

Season series

STL leads series 6-3

Apr 28STLSTL1@CINCIN3
Apr 29STLSTL0@CINCIN0
Apr 30STLSTL6@CINCIN0
Apr 30STLSTL9@CINCIN1
May 1STLSTL1@CINCIN9
Jun 20CINCIN1@STLSTL6
Jun 21CINCIN5@STLSTL6
Jun 22CINCIN4@STLSTL1
Aug 29STLSTL7@CINCIN5
Aug 30STLSTL4@CINCIN2today
Aug 31STLSTL4@CINCIN7
Sep 15CINCIN11@STLSTL6
Sep 16CINCIN0@STLSTL3
Sep 17CINCIN6@STLSTL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 4th Inning

STLSTL
P. Pages

P. Pages

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
M. McLain

M. McLain

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

STL beat CIN 4-2. Church's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+24pp→ 58% WP

Church · singled to center, Saggese scored and Walker scored, Pagés to second.

CINBottom 7th Inning · 3-2
+15pp→ 33% WP

McLain · homered to left center (406 feet).

STLTop 8th Inning · 4-2
+15pp→ 84% WP

Pag · és homered to left center (395 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0002001104
CIN1000001002

Period scoring

STL won 2 · CIN won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Lux 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Church 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Contreras 1

McLain 1

1
0

Inn 8

Pag 1

0
0

Inn 9

STL
CIN

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 4·CIN 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  3. B9

    Friedl grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  6. B9

    Kyle Leahy pitches to TJ Friedl

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  7. B9

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  8. B9

    McLain grounded into fielder's choice to third, Banfield to second, Hayes out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

    −9pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  14. B9

    Kyle Leahy pitches to Matt McLain

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  15. B9

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  16. B9

    Banfield bunted into fielder's choice to pitcher, Hayes to second, Steer out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

    −13pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  18. B9

    Kyle Leahy pitches to Will Banfield

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  19. B9

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  20. B9

    Hayes singled to right, Steer to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

    +13pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  24. B9

    Kyle Leahy pitches to Ke'Bryan Hayes

    · ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  25. B9

    ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  26. B9

    Steer singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

    +8pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 4·CIN 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

4

Runs

2

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

14

TB

13

2

HR

1

6

BB

3

12

K

0

13

LOB

19

Player projections

CIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    56.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.5%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.9%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872