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Live · 8
  • MLBBot 5
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +33.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    SD 3@WSH 2
    -35.2ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    TOR 2@BAL 1
    -41.1ppmedium
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    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -48.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    MIL 2@HOU 3
    +41.9ppmedium
  • MLBMid 5
    MIA 1@NYM 3
    +45.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    KC 0@TEX 3
    +41.3pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAA 6@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
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FINAL+4MIA
STL

STL

63-65

2
6
MIA

MIA

60-67

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
9,304 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

STL 2 · MIA 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000110002
MIA012011016

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off St. Louis Cardinals, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL63-65
2
6
MIA60-67
STL63-65·MIA60-67
STL

STL

63-65

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
2-44021001
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44000001
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-44000000
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44111103
SPRINT26.838
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000003
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
0-44100001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44010003
SPRINT28.891
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-22000010
Team5-34342521113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PallanteA. Pallante★SP
5.1855341
A. VenezianoA. VenezianoRP
1.0100010
A. GranilloA. GranilloRP
1.0011310
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
0.2000110
Team8.0966771
MIA

MIA

60-67

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44000011
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-44111012
SPRINT27.765
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-33100001
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-44110011
SPRINT25.614
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
3-44132000
SPRINT28.483
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
1-44010002
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-22021010
SPRINT26.326
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-33000010
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
1-33111110
Team9-3131695177
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
7.0521191
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.0000020
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000020
Team9.05211131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • A. Pallante
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      51%·94.2 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      14%·77.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Granillo
    35 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      69%·83.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
  • R. Fernandez
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Veneziano
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      27%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.5 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    114 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      26%·92.0 mph·42% whiff
    • SI
      24%·97.8 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.6 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      18%·98.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      12%·89.6 mph·13% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      63%·87.2 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      21%·97.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      10%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Aug 18STLSTL8@MIAMIA3
Aug 19STLSTL7@MIAMIA4
Aug 20STLSTL2@MIAMIA6today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Jul 28MIAMIA1@STLSTL7
Jul 29MIAMIA5@STLSTL0
Jul 30MIAMIA2@STLSTL0
Aug 18STLSTL8@MIAMIA3
Aug 19STLSTL7@MIAMIA4
Aug 20STLSTL2@MIAMIA6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

STLSTL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

MIAMIA
T. Johnston

T. Johnston

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat STL 6-2.

Win probability

MIA vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 66% WP

Johnston · walked, Wiemer to second, Hernández to third.

MIABottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+17pp→ 80% WP

Hern · ández singled to center, Marsee scored and Ramírez scored.

STLTop 5th Inning · 1-3
+11pp→ 27% WP

Nootbaar · hit a ground rule double, Pozo scored, Walker to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000110002
MIA01201101—6

Period scoring

STL won 0 · MIA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Sanoja 1

0
2

Inn 3

Hern 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Nootbaar 1

Johnston 1

1
1

Inn 6

Contreras 1

Acosta 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Marsee 1

0

Inn 9

STL
MIA

Play-by-play · 574 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  2. T9

    Walker struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  8. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Jordan Walker

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  9. T9

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  10. T9

    Pozo flied out to left.

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  18. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Yohel Pozo

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  19. T9

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  20. T9

    Saggese struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

    +0.5pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  28. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  29. T9

    Faucher relieved Henriquez

    ·

    STL 2·MIA 6

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    STL 2·MIA 6

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

2

Runs

6

5

Hits

9

1

Errors

1

9

TB

12

1

HR

1

1

BB

7

13

K

7

11

LOB

29

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    55.3%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.2%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 96
    13
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    244
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    307
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 95
    308
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 95
    154
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    32
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs