MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BAL

BAL

45-57

CLE

51-51

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

26,223 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.8%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.1low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.6± 3.0low

Hits

Leody TaverasBAL
1.1± 0.8high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 2.1high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9± 2.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.3high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
0.6± 1.9high
Samuel BasalloBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · CLE 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
CLE	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Holliday★2B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Westburg★3B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
G. Henderson★SS	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT28.175
R. Laureano★LF	1-5	5	1	1	2	1	0	0
SPRINT2872
T. O'Neill★RF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.662
R. Urias★3B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
C. Mayo★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Carlson★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Jackson★C	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. CowserCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	8-35	35	4	8	4	1	2	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-5

1-4

2-4

1-5

2-4

1-4

0-2

0-3

1-3

0-1

Team

8-35

	Pitching
C. Morton★SP	6.2	5	3	3	4	7	2
C. MartinRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. DominguezRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team	9.0	7	3	3	4	11	2

Pitching

Player

6.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
S. Kwan★CF	2-4	4	2	2	2	2	1	0
SPRINT26.530
A. Martinez★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT27.765
J. Ramirez★3B	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.251
K. Manzardo★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
SPRINT25.411
N. Jones★RF	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
D. Schneemann★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
W. Wilson★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Rocchio★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. Hedges★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Santana1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. FryRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	7-31	31	3	7	3	2	4	11

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

S. Kwan★CF

2-4