MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CLE

MIN

51-59

CLE

56-54

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

35,116 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.8%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Joe RyanMIN
6.1± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.1± 3.0low

Hits

Jose RamirezCLE
1.1± 1.1high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.0± 0.9high
Chase DeLauterCLE
0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

Jose RamirezCLE
2.0± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 2.1high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Tristan GrayMIN
0.7± 1.6high
Josh BellMIN
0.6± 1.0high
Angel MartinezCLE
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

CLE

.706

OPS

◀

.715

.688

.315

OBP

.319

.317

4.49

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.79

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.80

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

MIN 4 · CLE 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	4
CLE	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
A. RodenLF	.100	5	1	1	0	0	0	4
T. LarnachLF	.242	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
R. JeffersC	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. Clemens1B	.222	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. WallnerRF	.208	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
R. Lewis3B	.249	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Julien2B	.196	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.110	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MartinRF	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	9	4	1	2	15

Player

AVG

RBI

.100

.242

.255

.222

.208

.249

.250

.196

.110

.600

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. OberSP	5.0	6	4	4	1	4	91
P. OhlRP	3.0	4	1	1	1	2	52
Team	8.0	10	5	5	2	6	143

Player

B. OberSP

5.0

P. OhlRP

3.0

Team

8.0

143

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.226	4	2	3	1	1	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.300	3	2	2	2	1	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Santana1B	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. NaylorC	.180	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
G. AriasSS	.232	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. KayfusLF	.000	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.219	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezLF	.241	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	10	5	2	2	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. BibeeSP	4.2	8	4	4	2	5	93
M. FestaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
E. SabrowskiRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	22
N. EnrightRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	11
H. GaddisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	15
Team	9.0	9	4	4	2	15	152

Team

MIN

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.