MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5ATL

ATL

52-68

116

NYM

64-56

Citi Field · Queens, New York

38,647 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
58.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.5%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.8%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.2± 2.8low
Spencer StriderATL
6.1± 3.1low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.2high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.8high
Carson BengeNYM
2.1± 3.6high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.0low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

NYM

.750

OPS

◀

.715

.662

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.292

5.07

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.97

3.28

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 11 · NYM 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	9	0	2	0	0	0	11
NYM	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.245	5	1	3	3	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.262	3	2	0	0	0	2	2
M. OzunaDH	.237	4	2	2	3	1	1	0
O. Albies2B	.222	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. MurphyC	.212	3	2	0	0	0	2	0
M. Harris IICF	.246	5	2	2	4	1	0	1
E. WhiteCF	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.218	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
N. AllenSS	.223	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
Team		35	11	8	11	2	7	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.245

.262

.237

.222

.212

.246

.234

.218

.223

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. CarrascoRP	2.0	6	6	6	3	2	67
A. BummerRP	2.1	2	0	0	1	3	51
T. KinleyRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	23
D. LeeRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	2	22
P. JohnsonRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	19
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	12	6	6	6	9	195

Player

2.0

2.1

0.2

1.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

195

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. LindorSS	.245	3	2	2	0	0	2	0
J. SotoLF	.251	4	2	1	2	1	1	3
B. NimmoRF	.251	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
P. Alonso1B	.272	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.250	4	0	1	1	0	1	1
S. MarteRF	.281	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
C. MullinsCF	.182	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
F. AlvarezC	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Baty3B	.236	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	12	6	1	6	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
D. PetersonSP	3.1	5	6	6	5	5	80
R. GarrettRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	2	24
P. BlackburnRP	5.0	1	2	2	1	3	61
Team	9.0	8	11	11	7	10	165

Team

ATL

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.