MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BAL

ATH

51-67

BAL

53-63

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

20,796 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
54.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.2%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.5%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.6± 3.0low
Luis SeverinoATH
5.5± 3.7low
Shane BazBAL
5.3± 2.1low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high
Leody TaverasBAL
1.1± 0.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9± 2.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.8± 1.9high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.5high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.3high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Jacob LopezATH
2.8± 2.3low
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

ATH 2 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2
BAL	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
C. Cortes★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Rooker★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz★1B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
SPRINT26.632
S. Langeliers★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Soderstrom★LF	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT26.735
D. Hernaiz★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Butler★RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.530
G. Urshela★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Urias★2B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. ThomasRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	7-32	32	2	7	2	0	2	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

0-3

2-4

0-4

2-4

0-3

1-2

1-4

1-3

0-1

Team

7-32

	Pitching
J.T. Ginn★SP	5.0	3	3	3	2	9	2
B. BowdenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	8.0	3	3	3	3	10	2

Pitching

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
J. Holliday★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Westburg★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Henderson★SS	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.175
A. Rutschman★C	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
SPRINT26.632
R. Mountcastle★1B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
R. Noda★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. Allen★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Carlson★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	3-26	26	3	3	3	2	3	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI