MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4LAA

55-59

LAA

55-58

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

25,754 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.5%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.4%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.1± 1.4medium
Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.9± 2.3medium
Zach NetoLAA
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.5medium
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.6medium
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAA

.722

OPS

◀

.715

.701

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.46

3.91

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.68

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

TB 1 · LAA 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
LAA	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. DiazDH	.282	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
H. KimSS	.222	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Caminero3B	.251	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
C. Morel1B	.210	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. DeLucaRF	.340	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. LoweLF	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.225	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. MangumLF	.281	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. FortesC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. FeducciaC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	5	1	0	4	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.282

.222

.251

.210

.340

.238

.225

.281

.000

.125

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. HouserSP	5.2	11	5	5	1	3	93
I. SeymourRP	2.1	0	0	0	0	3	28
Team	8.0	11	5	5	1	6	121

Player

A. HouserSP

5.2

I. SeymourRP

2.1

Team

8.0

121

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.273	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.277	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. TroutCF	.237	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
T. WardLF	.235	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
Y. Moncada3B	.221	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.227	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
T. d'ArnaudC	.216	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Moore2B	.186	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. TeodosioLF	.429	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
O. Peraza2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	11	5	1	1	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Y. KikuchiSP	6.0	4	1	1	2	7	105
B. BurkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
C. BrogdonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
Team	9.0	5	1	1	4	12	165

Team

LAA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.