MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATH

ATH

53-67

BAL

53-65

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

23,183 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
54.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.5%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.7%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 2.3low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Shane BazBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

BAL

.735

OPS

◀

.715

.727

.326

OBP

.319

.324

4.38

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.62

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.54

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.40

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 3 · BAL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3
BAL	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. LangeliersC	.270	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. RookerDH	.276	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. Kurtz1B	.305	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. ThomasRF	.162	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
D. HernaizSS	.270	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
J. BledayLF	.223	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. Urshela3B	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. MacIverC	.228	3	0	1	2	0	1	1
M. SchuemannSS	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.294	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.231	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.260	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Urias2B	.239	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	6	3	0	5	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.270

.276

.305

.162

.270

.223

.234

.228

.211

.294

.231

.260

.239

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. MoralesSP	2.2	0	0	0	5	4	57
T. FergusonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	18
B. BowdenRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	8
J. SternerRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	3	24
S. NewcombRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	15
E. AlvaradoRP	1.2	0	0	0	2	2	32
Team	9.0	5	2	2	8	12	154

Player

2.2

1.2

0.2

1.1

1.0

1.2

Team

9.0

154

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.251	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
J. Westburg3B	.266	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
G. HendersonSS	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.235	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.244	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Jackson2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. JacksonC	.244	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
G. AllenCF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Jor. AdamsCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Noda1B	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Mayo3B	.217	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. CarlsonLF	.183	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	1	8	12

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. PovichSP	6.0	4	1	1	3	5	94
Y. CanoRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	26
D. EnnsRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	11
K. AkinRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	22
Team	9.0	6	3	3	5	11	153

Team

ATH

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.