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  • MLBTop 5
    DET 1@CHW 2
    +21.7ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
BAL

BAL

44-57

2
3
CLE

CLE

51-50

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
30,476 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

BAL 2 · CLE 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0001010002
CLE000200013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 1, 25sim 98
    92
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 24, 25sim 96
    14
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 96
    112
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 95
    244
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    291
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    113
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CLE vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    56.3%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.8%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 3-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Baltimore Orioles, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan

CF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL44-57
2
3
CLE51-50
BAL44-57·CLE51-50
BAL

BAL

44-57

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-33111111
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
1-44110000
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000001
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-33011000
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000000
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-11000020
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.662
J. StallingsJ. Stallings★C
0-22000001
D. CarlsonD. CarlsonLF
0-11000001
Team5-2828252136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. EflinZ. Eflin★SP
5.0222150
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000000
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000000
C. SelbyC. SelbyRP
1.0211110
Team8.0433260
CLE

CLE

51-50

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-33111010
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33000011
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-33012001
SPRINT25.411
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-33000001
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
0-33000000
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33000001
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000000
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-33110001
SPRINT27.354
Team4-2828343026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
6.0522221
N. EnrightN. EnrightRP
1.0000110
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
1.0000010
E. ClaseE. ClaseRP
1.0000020
Team9.0522361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • Z. Eflin
    84 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      26%·78.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      26%·92.5 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      1%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Selby
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      48%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      26%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.6 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Cano
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      62%·94.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.7 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    85 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      25%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      14%·75.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      2%·89.1 mph·50% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      47%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
  • N. Enright
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      92%·93.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • E. Clase
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FC
      100%·98.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

4

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 3-1

Jul 21BALBAL5@CLECLE10
Jul 22BALBAL3@CLECLE6
Jul 23BALBAL2@CLECLE3today
Jul 24BALBAL4@CLECLE3

Season series

CLE leads series 4-2

Apr 15CLECLE6@BALBAL3
Apr 16CLECLE1@BALBAL9
Apr 17CLECLE2@BALBAL6
Jul 21BALBAL5@CLECLE10
Jul 22BALBAL3@CLECLE6
Jul 23BALBAL2@CLECLE3today
Jul 24BALBAL4@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 8th Inning

BALBAL
J. Holliday

J. Holliday

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

Z. Eflin

Z. Eflin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
S. Kwan

S. Kwan

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat BAL 3-2. Kwan's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

CLE vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 75% WP

Manzardo · singled to left, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.

BALTop 6th Inning · 2-2
+16pp→ 43% WP

Holliday · homered to right (356 feet).

CLEBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+27pp→ 88% WP

Kwan · singled to center, Naylor scored, Kwan to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0001010002
CLE00020001—3

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · CLE won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
2

Inn 4

O'Hearn 1

Manzardo 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Holliday 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Kwan 1

0

Inn 9

BAL
CLE

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  2. T9

    Laureano struck out looking.

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  7. T9

    Emmanuel Clase pitches to Ramon Laureano

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  8. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  9. T9

    O'Hearn grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

    +5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  11. T9

    Emmanuel Clase pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  12. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  13. T9

    Henderson struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

    +7pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  21. T9

    Emmanuel Clase pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  22. T9

    Clase relieved Gaddis

    ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  23. T9

    Hedges catching.

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  26. B8

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  27. B8

    Ramírez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

    −3pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 2·CLE 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

10

TB

6

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

6

K

6

9

LOB

5

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872