MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SF

58-57

PIT

49-66

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

14,005 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
52.9%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.6%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.1%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.7low
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.1low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.7± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.5± 0.5high
Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.5± 3.7high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.1± 1.8high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.1± 1.3high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.1high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.8± 1.8low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

PIT

.728

OPS

.715

▶

.740

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.04

4.55

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.26

1.41

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.31

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 4 · PIT 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	4
PIT	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.274	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Devers1B	.225	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
W. AdamesSS	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. Chapman3B	.229	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. SchmittDH	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. EncarnacionRF	.167	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. LeeRF	.258	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Koss2B	.257	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. KniznerC	.160	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. McCrayCF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.271	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
P. BaileyC	.213	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
Team		33	4	7	4	1	2	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.274

.225

.232

.229

.249

.167

.258

.257

.160

.143

.271

.213

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. RaySP	6.0	6	2	2	2	8	104
J. ButtoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
R. WalkerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	29
R. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	8	2	2	2	11	158

Player

R. RaySP

6.0

104

J. ButtoRP

1.0

R. WalkerRP

1.0

R. RodriguezRP

1.0

Team

9.0

158

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. PegueroSS	.237	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
T. PhamLF	.269	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gonzales3B	.279	4	0	3	1	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.249	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. BartC	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. CanarioLF	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.168	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.270	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.262	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CruzCF	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.164	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SuwinskiRF	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	8	2	0	2	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. HeaneySP	4.2	2	1	1	0	1	76
D. MoretaRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	18
C. MlodzinskiSP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	14
I. MattsonRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	13
D. SantanaRP	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	22
R. BoruckiRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	9.0	7	4	4	2	4	148

Team

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.