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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10PHI
BAL

BAL

51-62

3
13
PHI

PHI

64-48

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
41,099 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

BAL 3 · PHI 13 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0210000003
PHI1020080213

What's next

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Baltimore Orioles, 13–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Tyler O'Neill

Tyler O'Neill

RF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

2.400OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

6

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL51-62
3
13
PHI64-48
BAL51-62·PHI64-48
BAL

BAL

51-62

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-44000002
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
1-44111101
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33010002
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-33110010
SPRINT26.632
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-33112101
SPRINT27.662
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-44000002
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000003
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT2872
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-33000000
L. VazquezL. VazquezSS
0-11000001
R. NodaR. Noda1B
0-11000001
Team5-32323532113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PovichC. Povich★SP
5.2444172
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
1.1111011
El. RodríguezEl. RodríguezRP
1.0322012
Team8.0131313296
PHI

PHI

64-48

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44100010
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
3-55236201
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-33110011
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
1-33110001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44113100
SPRINT27.662
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-33010001
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
3-44331101
SPRINT28.278
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
2-44222100
R. MarchanR. MarchanC
0-11000000
M. KeplerM. KeplerLF
0-11000001
B. StottB. Stott2B
0-11100001
Team13-3737131313629
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
6.0533072
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0000010
S. JohnsonS. JohnsonSP
2.0000150
Team9.05331132

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • C. Povich
    90 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      36%·92.1 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      24%·83.0 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      18%·80.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.6 mph·40% whiff
  • C. Martin
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      50%·91.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      39%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      33%·89.1 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • El. Rodríguez
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.9 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    91 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      34%·86.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.7 mph·64% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.6 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      2%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Johnson
    32 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      44%·87.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      6%·89.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      3%·77.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      47%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

13

3

Runs

13

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Aug 4BALBAL3@PHIPHI13today
Aug 5BALBAL0@PHIPHI5
Aug 6BALBAL5@PHIPHI1

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Aug 4BALBAL3@PHIPHI13today
Aug 5BALBAL0@PHIPHI5
Aug 6BALBAL5@PHIPHI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 30pp · Bottom 6th Inning

BALBAL
T. O'Neill

T. O'Neill

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Povich

C. Povich

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.400 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 5 H

How it ended

PHI beat BAL 13-3. PHI outscored the other side 8-0 in the 6th inning.

Win probability

PHI vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 2nd Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 49% WP

O'Neill · homered to left (417 feet), Rutschman scored.

PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 3-3
+23pp→ 62% WP

Schwarber · homered to right (427 feet), Sosa scored.

PHIBottom 6th Inning · 3-6
+30pp→ 92% WP

Bader · homered to left (391 feet), Realmuto scored and Castellanos scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0210000003
PHI10200802—13

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · PHI won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Harper 1

2
0

Inn 2

O'Neill 2

1
2

Inn 3

Westburg 1

Schwarber 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
8

Inn 6

Schwarber 4

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Sosa 1

0

Inn 9

BAL
PHI

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  2. T9

    J. Jackson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  6. T9

    Seth Johnson pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  7. T9

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  8. T9

    Noda struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  13. T9

    Seth Johnson pitches to Ryan Noda

    · ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  14. T9

    Noda hit for O'Neill

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  15. T9

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  16. T9

    Rutschman walked.

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  22. T9

    Seth Johnson pitches to Adley Rutschman

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  23. T9

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  24. T9

    Vázquez struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  29. T9

    Seth Johnson pitches to Luis Vazquez

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

  30. T9

    Vázquez hit for Henderson

    ·

    BAL 3·PHI 13

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

3

Runs

13

5

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

12

TB

31

2

HR

6

1

BB

2

13

K

9

5

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 96
    910
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    246
    19(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    112
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 93
    219
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 93
    304
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 93
    38
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PHI vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    59.1%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.7%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.