MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6LAA

LAA

49-50

PHI

56-43

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

40,616 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
59.2%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.4%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.1%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Jo AdellLAA
1.2± 1.6high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Brandon MarshPHI
2.0± 2.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.8± 1.8high
Jo AdellLAA
1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.9low
Trey ManciniLAA
1.0± 1.1low
Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

PHI

.708

OPS

◀

.717

.681

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.296

4.49

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.62

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.11

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

9.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 8 · PHI 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	5	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	8
PHI	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.281	6	3	2	1	0	0	0
N. Schanuel1B	.274	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TroutCF	.241	4	1	1	2	0	1	1
T. WardLF	.231	4	0	2	4	0	1	2
J. AdellRF	.243	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. SolerDH	.215	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
L. O'HoppeC	.233	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. Rengifo3B	.237	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
K. Newman3B	.204	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.208	4	1	3	1	1	1	0
G. CamperoC	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	8	14	8	1	6	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.281

.274

.241

.231

.243

.215

.233

.237

.204

.208

.125

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. SorianoSP	7.0	6	2	2	2	5	93
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
C. FulmerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	6	2	2	2	6	115

Player

J. SorianoSP

7.0

B. BurkeRP

1.0

C. FulmerRP

1.0

Team

9.0

115

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. TurnerSS	.288	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.251	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Harper1B	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. CastellanosRF	.270	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. KempLF	.260	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. KeplerLF	.204	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.175	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.232	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team		32	2	6	2	1	2	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. SuarezSP	4.1	9	6	6	4	4	100
J. RossRP	1.2	3	1	1	1	2	37
S. JohnsonSP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	20
J. RomanoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
M. LazarRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	19
Team	9.0	14	8	7	6	6	182

Team

LAA

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.