MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

57-61

SEA

65-53

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

45,249 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
60.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.4%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.1%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Colt EmersonSEA
1.8± 1.8high
Junior CamineroTB
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.8± 0.9high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low
Luis CastilloSEA
2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

SEA

.722

OPS

.715

.718

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.318

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.25

3.91

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.59

1.22

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TB 4 · SEA 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4
SEA	2	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. DiazDH	.277	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
B. Lowe2B	.274	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. LoweLF	.233	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.258	4	1	2	3	1	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.287	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. KimSS	.192	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. PetersCF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Gray3B	.077	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.210	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. FortesC	.063	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	5	4	2	4	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.277

.274

.233

.258

.287

.200

.192

.000

.077

.210

.063

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. BoyleSP	3.1	4	6	6	5	5	88
M. MontgomeryRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	27
M. EnglertRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	34
I. SeymourRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	2	37
Team	8.0	7	7	7	8	10	186

Player

3.1

1.2

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

186

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.250	4	2	2	0	0	1	1
C. RaleighC	.248	4	1	1	3	1	1	2
J. RodriguezCF	.253	5	2	2	3	2	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.280	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.088	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Polanco1B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. CanzoneDH	.274	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.264	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Young2B	.253	0	2	0	0	0	4	0
Team		31	7	7	6	3	8	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. EvansSP	5.1	3	3	3	3	4	90
C. FergusonRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	10
E. BazardoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	14
G. SpeierRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
A. MunozRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	19
Team	9.0	5	4	4	4	9	139

Team

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.