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Live · 8
  • MLBTop 4
    BOS 1@CLE 1
    -7.9pphigh
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    MIA 0@NYM 0
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  • MLBBot 4
    TOR 2@BAL 1
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    MIL 1@HOU 3
    +50.1pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    KC 0@TEX 3
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    LAA 4@TB 1
    -69.5pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    MIN 2@PIT 7
    +46.5pplow
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FINAL+3MIN
MIN

MIN

49-52

10
7
LAD

LAD

59-43

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
45,074 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 10 · LAD 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN03000330110
LAD0003020027

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 6, 25sim 97
    246
    19(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 96
    13
    22(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 93
    219
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 92
    248
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 92
    712
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 92
    2612
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesLAD win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 10–7.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa

SS

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

4

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Andy Pages

Andy Pages

CF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN49-52
10
7
LAD59-43
MIN49-52·LAD59-43
MIN

MIN

49-52

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-55010002
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-55000001
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-55010003
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-33420021
SPRINT27.251
T. FranceT. France★1B
2-33321021
SPRINT24.74
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-22200020
SPRINT2622
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44113010
SPRINT27.251
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-55011003
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-44023001
SPRINT22.90
D. Keirsey Jr.D. Keirsey Jr.CF
0-11000001
Team10-3737101080713
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
3.0233521
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0000010
B. StewartB. StewartRP
1.0000010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0322020
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000010
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
2.0322011
Team9.0877682
LAD

LAD

59-43

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000010
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-55112102
SPRINT2744
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44210012
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-22110020
SPRINT24.74
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
2-33123111
SPRINT28.175
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-44110000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44012001
SPRINT28.381
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-22000011
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-33100001
D. RushingD. RushingC
1-11010000
Team8-3232787268
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
5.0633180
A. DiazA. DiazRP
1.0100010
W. KleinW. KleinRP
0.1031310
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.2000010
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0211020
Team9.0101087130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • G. Jax
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      55%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Stewart
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      17%·94.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·91.9 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      56%·85.8 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      31%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      6%·90.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      40%·87.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      13%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.9 mph·— whiff

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

10

Runs

7

0

Errors

2

Current series

LAD win series 2-1

Jul 22MINMIN2@LADLAD5
Jul 23MINMIN10@LADLAD7today
Jul 23MINMIN3@LADLAD4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 22MINMIN2@LADLAD5
Jul 23MINMIN10@LADLAD7today
Jul 23MINMIN3@LADLAD4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 4th Inning

MINMIN
C. Correa

C. Correa

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 4 R · 1.467 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 5 BB

LADLAD
A. Pages

A. Pages

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIN beat LAD 10-7. Pages's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+22pp→ 61% WP

Vázquez doubled to center, Lewis scored and France scored.

LADBottom 4th Inning · 3-3
+27pp→ 71% WP

Pages · homered to left center (387 feet), Smith scored and Freeman scored.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 6-5
+22pp→ 42% WP

Kim · singled to center, Smith scored and Conforto scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN03000330110
LAD0003020027

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Lewis 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Pages 3

0
0

Inn 5

3
2

Inn 6

Lewis 1

Kim 2

3
0

Inn 7

Correa 3

0
0

Inn 8

1
2

Inn 9

France 1

Ohtani 2

MIN
LAD

Play-by-play · 650 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  3. B9

    Smith struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  10. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Will Smith

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  11. B9

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  12. B9

    Ohtani homered to left center (405 feet), Outman scored.

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  14. B9

    Outman to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  15. B9

    Outman to third on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  17. B9

    Outman to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  18. B9

    Outman to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  20. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 7

  21. B9

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  22. B9

    Betts flied out to right.

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

    −0.6pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  27. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Mookie Betts

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  28. B9

    ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

  29. B9

    Outman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rushing out at second.

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

    −1pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 10·LAD 5

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

10

Runs

7

10

Hits

8

0

Errors

2

14

TB

15

0

HR

2

7

BB

6

13

K

8

20

LOB

16

Player projections

LAD vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Kyle TuckerLAD
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    60.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.6%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175