MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12BAL

BAL

57-67

120

HOU

69-55

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

36,411 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
58.7%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.2%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.7± 2.5low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.6± 3.0low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.4± 3.3low

Hits

Leody TaverasBAL
1.1± 0.8high
Taylor TrammellHOU
1.1± 0.8low
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 3.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 2.9high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
0.9± 1.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.8low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.4± 2.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 12 · HOU 0 (by 12)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	5	0	12
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Holliday★2B	2-4	4	3	2	1	0	2	0
J. Westburg★3B	4-5	5	2	4	5	1	0	0
G. Henderson★SS	0-2	2	1	0	2	0	2	0
SPRINT28.175
A. Rutschman★C	1-5	5	0	1	2	0	0	1
SPRINT26.632
C. Cowser★CF	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Basallo★C	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. Mayo★3B	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. Beavers★RF	1-4	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
J. Jackson★2B	3-5	5	3	3	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.530

Team	14-39	39	12	14	12	1	5	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-4

4-5

0-2

1-5

1-5

1-4

1-5

1-4

3-5

Team

14-39

	Pitching
D. Kremer★SP	7.0	3	0	0	1	7	0
G. WolframRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0
C. MartinRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0
Team	9.0	6	0	0	1	12	0

Pitching

Player

D. Kremer★SP

7.0

G. WolframRP

1.0

C. MartinRP

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
J. Pena★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Correa★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.251
J. Altuve★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.867
J. Sanchez★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. Diaz★C	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
SPRINT25.513
V. Caratini★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Dubon★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
J. Melton★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Trammell★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Urias3B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
C. SmithRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	6-32	32	0	6	0	0	1	12

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

1-3

1-3

0-4

2-4

0-3

1-3

0-3

0-3

1-1

0-1

Team

6-32

	Pitching
C. Javier★SP	3.0	3	1	1	0	2	0
S. DubinRP	1.0	5	4	4	0	1	1
S. OkertRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. OrtRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	0	0
J. WeemsRP	0.1	3	5	5	3	0	0
E. De Los SantosRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. McCormickLF	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	9.0	14	12	12	5	4	1

Pitching

Player

3.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

Team

BAL

HOU