MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8ATH

ATH

52-67

113

BAL

53-64

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

30,078 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
55.7%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.3%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.5%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 2.3low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Shane BazBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

BAL

.735

OPS

◀

.715

.727

.326

OBP

.319

.323

4.38

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.62

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.56

1.42

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.40

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 11 · BAL 3 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	2	0	4	0	5	0	0	0	0	11
BAL	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. ButlerRF	.231	3	1	0	0	0	2	2
S. LangeliersC	.274	4	2	3	3	1	1	1
N. Kurtz1B	.309	5	2	2	0	0	0	2
B. RookerDH	.274	5	1	2	4	1	0	1
T. SoderstromLF	.260	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.222	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
D. HernaizSS	.286	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
L. Urias2B	.240	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
G. Urshela3B	.234	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
M. SchuemannSS	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	11	13	11	2	5	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.231

.274

.309

.274

.260

.222

.286

.240

.234

.214

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. PerkinsRP	6.0	3	3	3	1	5	84
M. KellyRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	26
H. HarrisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	22
Team	9.0	4	3	3	1	8	132

Player

J. PerkinsRP

6.0

M. KellyRP

2.0

H. HarrisRP

1.0

Team

9.0

132

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.252	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Westburg3B	.268	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. HendersonSS	.284	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Mountcastle1B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Jackson2B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CarlsonLF	.184	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. AllenCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. VazquezSS	.059	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	4	3	1	1	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. YoungSP	3.0	6	6	6	2	2	74
Y. HiraldoRP	1.2	3	4	1	1	2	36
C. MartinRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	2	29
K. StrowdRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
G. WolframRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	3	44
Team	9.0	13	11	8	5	9	192

Team

ATH

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs ATH.

3 sub-models, blended.