• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 1
  • WNBA8:12 - 2nd
    SEA 18@TOR 23
    +9.9ppmedium
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3TB
TB

TB

58-62

7
4
ATH

ATH

53-68

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
7,731 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 7 · ATH 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0211002107
ATH0000103004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 14, 25sim 99
    308
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 97
    307
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    244
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    111
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    32
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 96
    247
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 11·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Athletics and beat them, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

3B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers

C

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB58-62
7
4
ATH53-68
TB58-62·ATH53-68
TB

TB

58-62

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-55000000
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-55120001
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44122100
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
3-44231110
SPRINT25.716
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
2-55120002
SPRINT27.457
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44011001
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-55111101
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33012011
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
3-33030010
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11100001
Team15-39397157337
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
6.1544242
G. JaxG. JaxRP
0.2000000
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0000000
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0100010
Team9.0644252
ATH

ATH

53-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33000011
SPRINT26.530
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-44110000
SPRINT27.148
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
3-44231100
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44113101
SPRINT26.735
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-44000001
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-22000011
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
0-22000000
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
0-22000000
C. CortesC. CortesRF
0-11000000
Team6-3030464225
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
3.1744121
O. BidoO. BidoRP
3.2622042
M. KellyM. KellyRP
0.1111200
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.2100010
Team9.01577373

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

6

7

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 12TBTB7@ATHATH4today
Aug 13TBTB0@ATHATH6
Aug 14TBTB8@ATHATH2

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Jun 30ATHATH6@TBTB4
Jul 1ATHATH4@TBTB3
Jul 2ATHATH5@TBTB6
Aug 12TBTB7@ATHATH4today
Aug 13TBTB0@ATHATH6
Aug 14TBTB8@ATHATH2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 2nd Inning

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
S. Langeliers

S. Langeliers

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

O. Bido

O. Bido

RP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H

How it ended

TB beat ATH 7-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 70% WP

Pereira · doubled to center, Caminero to third.

TBTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 75% WP

Fortes · singled to center, Caminero scored and Pereira scored.

ATHBottom 7th Inning · 6-4
+9pp→ 14% WP

Soderstrom · homered to center (414 feet), Rooker scored and Langeliers scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0211002107
ATH0000103004

Period scoring

TB won 4 · ATH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Fortes 2

1
0

Inn 3

Lowe 1

1
0

Inn 4

Morel 1

0
1

Inn 5

Langeliers 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
3

Inn 7

Lowe 1

Soderstrom 3

1
0

Inn 8

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 9

TB
ATH

Play-by-play · 593 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 7·ATH 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  3. B9

    Hernaiz grounded out to third.

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  9. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  10. B9

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  11. B9

    Soderstrom struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  16. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  17. B9

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  18. B9

    Langeliers grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

    −5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  21. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Shea Langeliers

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  22. B9

    ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  23. B9

    Kurtz doubled to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

    +5pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  25. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Nick Kurtz

    ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  26. B9

    Fairbanks relieved Uceta

    ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 7·ATH 4

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 7·ATH 4

  29. T9

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

  30. T9

    Mangum struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 7·ATH 4

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

7

Runs

4

15

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

27

TB

13

3

HR

2

3

BB

2

7

K

5

23

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

ATH vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    54.2%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.