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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TB
TB

TB

56-59

7
3
LAA

LAA

55-59

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
27,018 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 7 · LAA 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0007000007
LAA0000210003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 14, 25sim 98
    308
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    307
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 97
    13
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    305
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    32
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    244
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jo Adell

Jo Adell

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB56-59
7
3
LAA55-59
TB56-59·LAA55-59
TB

TB

56-59

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-55011002
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-55111001
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-33112111
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44110001
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44112001
SPRINT2993
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-44010001
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-33110010
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-33101002
Team8-35357871211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
5.2532261
G. JaxG. JaxRP
0.1000000
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0100020
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0000020
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000020
Team9.06322121
LAA

LAA

55-59

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000002
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-44000001
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44110003
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33100011
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44123100
SPRINT27.867
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000012
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
1-44010001
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.278
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33010001
Team6-32323631212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
4.0777141
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0000010
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.0000010
C. FulmerC. FulmerRP
3.0100150
Team9.08772111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • G. Jax
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      60%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·92.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      31%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      36%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      31%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.3 mph·— whiff

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

7

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 5TBTB1@LAALAA5
Aug 6TBTB7@LAALAA3today
Aug 6TBTB5@LAALAA4

Season series

LAA lead series 3-2

Apr 8LAALAA4@TBTB3
Apr 9LAALAA4@TBTB5
Apr 10LAALAA11@TBTB1
Aug 5TBTB1@LAALAA5
Aug 6TBTB7@LAALAA3today
Aug 6TBTB5@LAALAA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 4th Inning

TBTB
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
J. Adell

J. Adell

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat LAA 7-3. B. Lowe's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 75% WP

B. Lowe · homered to center (411 feet), Díaz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0007000007
LAA0000210003

Period scoring

TB won 1 · LAA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

7
0

Inn 4

Lowe 2

0
2

Inn 5

Adell 2

0
1

Inn 6

Adell 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TB
LAA

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 7·LAA 3

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  3. B9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  10. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  11. B9

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  12. B9

    O'Hoppe struck out looking.

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  21. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  22. B9

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  23. B9

    Adell flied out to center.

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

    −0.7pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  26. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  27. B9

    Fairbanks relieved Uceta

    ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 7·LAA 3

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 7·LAA 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    TB 7·LAA 3

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

7

Runs

3

8

Hits

6

2

Errors

0

15

TB

10

1

HR

1

2

BB

2

11

K

12

10

LOB

5

Player projections

LAA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.1%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.4%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278