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TonightCross-sport digest

Tonight's Bets

One stop for what the model is on, what Vegas is taking the most sides on, and which of tonight's slate is most worth a watch. Refreshes continuously.

Model · last 3061.4%301 / 490 gamesTrack record →Cross-sport edgesLeaderboard →

ATL 2Delayed, Bottom 2nd MLB

ATL 2Delayed, Bottom 2nd

Tonight · every sport

Where the model disagrees with the market.

Top edge tonight +7.0% EV — moneyline and spread across 2 sports tonight.

What's EV?

EV = Expected Value. The percentage edge the model thinks the bet has over the posted sportsbook price.

+5% EV means the model expects $5 of profit per $100 risked — over enough samples. Higher EV = larger gap between the model's win probability and the market's implied probability at the line on offer. We surface only +EV picks.

›What do Lock / Edge / Lean mean?

Lock / Edge / Lean rank the size of the model’s edge over the market (its expected value) — not a calibrated win probability. A bigger edge means a louder disagreement with the market, not a surer outcome.

All Moneyline Spread

MLB

3 with an edge

ARI run line +1.5 -187LAA @ ARI · EDGE

EV +7.0% at -187+7.4pp vs no-vig market

Cover 70% · Mkt 62%

CIN run line +1.5 -156NYM @ CIN · LEAN

EV +2.9% at -156+4.5pp vs no-vig market

Cover 63% · Mkt 58%

BOS run line +1.5 -170TOR @ BOS · LEAN

EV +2.7% at -170+4.5pp vs no-vig market

Cover 65% · Mkt 60%

WNBA

1 with an edge

IND spread -8.5 -115TOR @ IND · LEAN

EV +3.7% at -115+4.4pp vs no-vig market

Cover 55% · Mkt 51%

4 edges across 2 sports · updated 9:50 PM ET

Receipts · in progress · 8 open

Open picks, live.

LOGGED BEFORE TIP · GRADED AT THE FINAL · PRE-GAME MODEL PROB, NEVER A LIVE %

Every logged pick whose game is in progress right now. Each one grades the moment the buzzer sounds — win or lose, it lands on the receipts either way.

Also on tonight's board

Marquee · cross-sport

Top games tonight

MLBBot 8th

CHW

NYY

Live · marquee right now

MLBBot 8th

NYM

CIN

Live · marquee right now

MLBTop 8th

CLE

MIL

Live · marquee right now

MLBEnd 6th

STL

Live · marquee right now

MLBTop 6th

MIN

TEX

Live · marquee right now

MLBTop 6th

DET

HOU

Live · marquee right now

How the model has fared

Edge honesty · 1,641 graded picks · 1077 price-less excluded

Did the edge cash?

FLAT 1u STAKE · WIN% INCLUDES PUSHES (DISCLOSED) · THIN BUCKETS (n < 30) DIMMED, NOT HIDDEN

By closing-line value

clv_bps vs the close

Bucket	n	Win%	Avg price	ROI
< −100 bps	546	57.9%	-181	-7.9%
−100 – 0	75	72%	-145	+25%
0 – 100	79	62%	-120	+10.4%
100 – 250	148	50.7%	-110	-11.1%
≥ 250 bps	793	54%	-59	+0.7%

By modeled edge

edge_bps at log time

Bucket	n	Win%	Avg price	ROI
< 200 bps	740	58.9%	-168	-3.5%
200 – 400	161	57.8%	-101	+2.9%
400 – 700	306	52.9%	-83	-5.1%
≥ 700 bps	434	53.2%	-38	+2.1%

By confidence tier

producer-assigned

Bucket	n	Win%	Avg price	ROI
sharp	225	55.1%	+11	+12.2%
high	142	45.1%	-69	-17.6%
medium	534	55.8%	-95	-0.7%
low	740	58.9%	-168	-3.5%

Unsmoothed, straight off the picks ledger. As of this build the CLV→cash gradient is NOT clean — the deep-negative bucket is heavy favorites at negative ROI and the middle buckets are thin. That result is published, not curated.

Edge honesty · 1,641 graded picks · 1077 missing a price, dropped from both series

Was our timing worth anything?

FLAT 1u PER PICK · LOSSES −1 AT BOTH PRICES (ONLY WINNING PAYOUTS DIFFER) · SAME PICK SET, TWO PRICES

Timing alpha

-19.8u

At our price

-27.6u

At the close

-7.8u

Max drawdown

−56.6u

Streaks

W16 / L9

— at our logged price·— at the close

The exact same picks, graded at the price we logged vs the closing price. Positive alpha would mean betting at publish beat betting at close — as of this build it is negative, and that ships too. Drawdown and streaks are on the logged series.

Sportsbooks

Where to bet.

21+ · Bet responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER · ncpgambling.org

Bet responsibly · 21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER · Models inform, they don't guarantee.

How the model has fared

Edge honesty · 1,641 graded picks · 1077 price-less excluded

Did the edge cash?

FLAT 1u STAKE · WIN% INCLUDES PUSHES (DISCLOSED) · THIN BUCKETS (n < 30) DIMMED, NOT HIDDEN

By closing-line value

clv_bps vs the close

Bucket	n	Win%	Avg price	ROI
< −100 bps	546	57.9%	-181	-7.9%
−100 – 0	75	72%	-145	+25%
0 – 100	79	62%	-120	+10.4%
100 – 250	148	50.7%	-110	-11.1%
≥ 250 bps	793	54%	-59	+0.7%

By modeled edge

edge_bps at log time

Bucket	n	Win%	Avg price	ROI
< 200 bps	740	58.9%	-168	-3.5%
200 – 400	161	57.8%	-101	+2.9%
400 – 700	306	52.9%	-83	-5.1%
≥ 700 bps	434	53.2%	-38	+2.1%

By confidence tier

producer-assigned

Bucket	n	Win%	Avg price	ROI
sharp	225	55.1%	+11	+12.2%
high	142	45.1%	-69	-17.6%
medium	534	55.8%	-95	-0.7%
low	740	58.9%	-168	-3.5%

Edge honesty · 1,641 graded picks · 1077 missing a price, dropped from both series

Was our timing worth anything?

FLAT 1u PER PICK · LOSSES −1 AT BOTH PRICES (ONLY WINNING PAYOUTS DIFFER) · SAME PICK SET, TWO PRICES

Timing alpha

-19.8u

At our price

-27.6u

At the close

-7.8u

Max drawdown

−56.6u

Streaks

W16 / L9

— at our logged price·— at the close