WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10LV

SEA

3-10

91101

8-3

WNBAMon, Jun 8FinalSeriesLV leads series 1-0VegasLV -15.5

SEA · top performer

Natisha Hiedeman

G · #2

17.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

36.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ LV

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:23

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	18	0	0-7	0-2	—	+3	7	1
D. MalongaC · #14	17	19	7-12	1-2	4-4	+8	5	0
A. FamC · #11	29	16	7-11	1-3	1-1	-13	3	1
N. HiedemanG · #2	28	17	6-12	4-6	1-2	-4	5	5
F. JohnsonG · #4	24	13	5-9	1-1	2-2	-1	2	7
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	20	7	3-6	1-4	—	-19	3	0
M. HolmesF · #54	12	3	1-1	1-1	—	+1	2	0
S. DolsonC · #31	16	3	1-3	1-2	—	-15	0	2
Z. CookeG · #7	13	7	2-6	2-3	1-2	-10	0	1
J. MelbourneG · #5	23	6	1-7	0-3	4-4	0	0	5
Team		91	33-74	12-27	13-15		27	22
DNP: E. Magbegor, T. Thierry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	17	3	1-4	1-3	—	+18	3	3
N. SmithF · #3	26	16	6-6	—	4-5	+16	9	0
A. WilsonC · #22	36	34	10-19	3-5	11-13	+12	12	9
C. GrayG · #12	35	12	5-10	1-4	1-1	+7	5	8
J. YoungG · #0	34	29	10-19	4-9	5-5	+15	3	6
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	1	1
B. TurnerF · #21	6	0	0-2	—	—	0	0	0
K. BellF · #1	8	2	1-2	0-1	—	-3	4	0
J. LoydG · #24	28	5	2-7	1-5	—	-7	2	0
Team		101	35-70	10-28	21-24		39	27
DNP: J. Barker

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

Home

33-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-70

FG %

12-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-28

13-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV leads series 1-0

Jun 9

SEA91@

LV101today

Sep 18

LV@

SEAupcoming

Sep 21

SEA@

LVupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -15.5

Between 10 and —

1.0pt· 6.5h

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+80011%

LV-135093%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -15.5↗SpreadBet LV -15.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

+2.0 since open

Total

162.5

-4.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat SEA 101-91. A. Wilson paced them with 34 PTS, 12 REB, 9 AST. LV outscored the other side 27-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LV vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST

GS 18

LVstarters 93% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 32 REB · 26 AST

GS 87

Bench(4)

7 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST

GS 3

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV2nd Quarter · 6:23 · 31-35

+8pp→ 88% WP

Awa Fam · offensive foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	25	18	16	32	91
LV	23	27	22	29	101

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · LV won 2

Malonga 12

Wilson 14

Fam 7

Smith 11

Hiedeman 8

Young 8

Malonga 7

Young 14

SEA

Shooting comparison

SEA

45%

33-74

50%

35-70

44%

12-27

3PT

36%

10-28

87%

13-15

88%

21-24

Play-by-play · 399 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 91·LV 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 91·LV 101
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Storm] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
SEA 91·LV 101
Q4·0.0
Natisha Hiedeman makes 30-foot three point jumper (Flau'jae Johnson assists)
·
SEA 91·LV 101
Q4·7.3
A'ja Wilson out of bounds bad pass turnover
SEA 88·LV 101
Q4·12.0
NaLyssa Smith defensive rebound
SEA 88·LV 101
Q4·15.0
Jade Melbourne misses 24-foot three point jumper
SEA 88·LV 101
Q4·18.9
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
SEA 88·LV 101
Q4·22.2
Jackie Young misses 19-foot jumper
SEA 88·LV 101
Q4·32.2
Flau'jae Johnson makes two point shot (Natisha Hiedeman assists)
·
SEA 88·LV 101
Q4·38.7
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
SEA 86·LV 101
Q4·38.7
Chelsea Gray misses 27-foot three point jumper
SEA 86·LV 101
Q4·40.4
A'ja Wilson offensive rebound
SEA 86·LV 101
Q4·43.8
Jackie Young misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SEA 86·LV 101
Q4·53.5
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
SEA 86·LV 101
Q4·55.9
Awa Fam misses 7-foot reverse layup
SEA 86·LV 101
Q4·1:05
Jackie Young makes 24-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
SEA 86·LV 101
Q4·1:12
Chelsea Gray offensive rebound
SEA 86·LV 98
Q4·1:16
Jewell Loyd misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 86·LV 98
Q4·1:33
Awa Fam makes 5-foot layup (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
SEA 86·LV 98
Q4·1:39
Awa Fam enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
SEA 84·LV 98
Q4·1:39
Storm Full timeout
SEA 84·LV 98
Q4·1:39
Jackie Young makes 26-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
SEA 84·LV 98
Q4·1:59
Dominique Malonga makes 10-foot two point shot (Flau'jae Johnson assists)
·
SEA 84·LV 95
Q4·2:06
Flau'jae Johnson defensive rebound
SEA 82·LV 95
Q4·2:08
Jewell Loyd misses 23-foot three point jumper
SEA 82·LV 95
Q4·2:30
Jewell Loyd defensive rebound
SEA 82·LV 95
Q4·2:32
Jade Melbourne misses 4-foot two point shot
SEA 82·LV 95
Q4·2:50
NaLyssa Smith makes layup (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
SEA 82·LV 95
Q4·3:01
Natisha Hiedeman makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 82·LV 93

Betting line

LV -15.5·O/U 162.5·SEA +800/LV -1350

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces held off Seattle Storm, 101–91.

SEA +15.5 cashed (LV won by 10). Total cleared the 162.5 OVER by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

eFG%

shooting

52.7%

57.1%

TOV%

ball control

10.0%

13.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

17.6%

34.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

17.6%

30.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

89.4%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
87.5%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
90.7%
P(LV win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
91.3%
P(LV win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.4pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

+1000DraftKings

edge +4.4pp · implied 8.9%

no live price

Book	SEA	LV	Best edge
DraftKings	+1000★	-1350	+4.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LV vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
26.6± 7.7high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.1high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.8± 4.0high
Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Awa FamSEA
6.6± 2.6high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.7± 2.2high
Jackie YoungLV
6.3± 3.5high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.5± 1.3high
Jewell LoydLV
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormLas Vegas Aces

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop