WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+9NY

8-4

8980

CON

2-11

WNBAMon, Jun 8FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -12.5

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 89–80.

CON +12.5 cashed (NY won by 9). Total cleared the 162.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Olivia Nelson-Ododa

C · #10

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	34	28	9-17	1-4	9-9	+10	9	3
L. FiebichF · #13	28	5	2-5	1-3	—	+7	7	1
H. XuC · #21	22	14	4-8	1-2	5-6	+13	6	2
M. JohannesG · #23	24	7	2-7	1-5	2-2	+12	4	3
P. AstierG · #18	26	6	2-8	0-1	2-2	+9	3	4
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	19	9	4-6	1-3	—	0	2	2
R. CarreraF · #14	13	7	2-3	0-1	3-4	+1	5	1
R. GardnerG · #7	8	2	1-1	—	—	-4	1	0
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	18	11	3-6	1-3	4-6	0	5	0
M. FauthouxG · #4	6	0	—	—	—	-3	0	1
Team		89	29-61	6-22	25-29		42	17
DNP: A. Maley, J. Jones, R. Allen, S. Ionescu

DNP: A. Maley, J. Jones, R. Allen, S. Ionescu

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	28	15	6-15	—	3-3	-14	5	0
D. MillerF · #1	23	10	4-8	2-4	—	-12	2	2
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	26	15	6-6	—	3-4	-3	8	1
S. RiversG · #22	29	12	6-15	0-2	0-4	-12	5	3
L. LacanG · #47	26	7	3-9	1-4	0-1	-16	0	7
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	14	4	2-3	—	—	-6	2	0
N. AnglomaF · #33	12	7	2-3	—	3-7	+4	2	2
K. BurkeG · #25	15	1	0-3	0-1	1-1	0	1	0
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	14	4	2-3	—	—	+7	2	2
G. KneepkensG · #5	13	5	1-5	0-2	3-3	+7	1	4
Team		80	32-70	3-13	13-23		28	21
DNP: A. Morrow, B. Griner, H. Van Lith, A. Jackson

DNP: A. Morrow, B. Griner, H. Van Lith, A. Jackson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

May 8

CON75@

NY106

Jun 8

NY89@

CON80today

Aug 15

NY@

CONupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-85089%

CON+57515%

70· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -12.5↗SpreadBet NY -12.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

+1.0 since open

Total

162.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNY ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:55

B. Stewart

Game leader · 34 min

28 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

CON

O. Nelson-Ododa

Game leader · 26 min

15 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

NY beat CON 89-80. B. Stewart paced them with 28 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST

GS 48

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 15

CONstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY3rd Quarter · 7:55 · 40-35

+8pp→ 84% WP

Pauline Astier · makes 2-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	23	15	27	24	89
CON	18	17	21	24	80

Period scoring

NY won 2 · CON won 1

Johannes 5

Miller 5

Stewart 10

Angloma 5

Stewart 7

Nelson-Ododa 6

Stewart 7

Miller 14

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

48%

29-61

46%

32-70

27%

6-22

3PT

23%

3-13

86%

25-29

57%

13-23

Play-by-play · 440 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 89·CON 80
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 89·CON 80
Q4·3.9
Breanna Stewart makes 4-foot two point shot
NY 89·CON 80
Q4·7.2
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton enters the game for Han Xu
·
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·7.2
Liberty Full timeout
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·10.8
Leonie Fiebich defensive rebound
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·14.5
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·14.5
Han Xu enters the game for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
·
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·14.5
Sun offensive team rebound
NY 87·CON 80
−0.7pp
Q4·14.5
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 87·CON 80
−1pp
Q4·14.5
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton personal foul
NY 87·CON 80
+1pp
Q4·24.8
Sun timeout
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·24.8
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton enters the game for Han Xu
·
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·24.8
Breanna Stewart makes two point shot
NY 87·CON 80
−1pp
Q4·24.8
Breanna Stewart offensive rebound
NY 85·CON 80
−2pp
Q4·25.8
Breanna Stewart misses 4-foot tip shot
NY 85·CON 80
+2pp
Q4·26.8
Breanna Stewart offensive rebound
NY 85·CON 80
−2pp
Q4·27.4
Saniya Rivers blocks Pauline Astier 's 4-foot driving layup
·
NY 85·CON 80
+0.8pp
Q4·45.9
Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 85·CON 80
−3pp
Q4·45.9
Han Xu enters the game for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
·
NY 85·CON 79
Q4·45.9
Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 85·CON 79
+0.8pp
Q4·45.9
Satou Sabally personal foul
NY 85·CON 78
+4pp
Q4·45.9
Aaliyah Edwards defensive rebound
NY 85·CON 78
Q4·46.7
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 85·CON 78
+0.6pp
Q4·1:05
Pauline Astier defensive rebound
NY 85·CON 78
−0.6pp
Q4·1:11
Diamond Miller misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 85·CON 78
−2pp
Q4·1:19
Sun Full timeout
NY 85·CON 78
Q4·1:19
Pauline Astier enters the game for Han Xu
·
NY 85·CON 78
Q4·1:19
Han Xu makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 85·CON 78
+0.5pp
Q4·1:19
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 84·CON 78
+1pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

CON

Home

29-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-70

FG %

6-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

3-13

25-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-23

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

NY -12.5·O/U 162.5·NY -850/CON +575

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179
Kennedy BurkeCON · G
ORB%.05871

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

11.5%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
27.3%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
28.6%
P(CON win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
28.8%
P(CON win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.63

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+470

Close price

+575

Open no-vig

16.8%

Close no-vig

14.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.9pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

-620DraftKings

edge +7.9pp · implied 81.2%

CON

no live price

Book	NY	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-620★	+400	+7.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
18.7± 8.2medium
Jonquel JonesNY
13.7± 6.0medium
Brittney GrinerCON
12.2± 5.4low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
10.2± 5.1medium
Jonquel JonesNY
9.4± 4.0medium
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.2medium

Assists

Leila LacanCON
5.2± 3.0low
Pauline AstierNY
3.9± 1.9medium
Saniya RiversCON
3.3± 2.1medium

Blocks

Jonquel JonesNY
1.5± 1.6medium
Brittney GrinerCON
1.3± 1.6low
Breanna StewartNY
1.1± 2.5medium

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.7± 1.6low
Breanna StewartNY
1.4± 1.6medium
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

CON

45.9%

FG%

◀

44.3

42.1%

35.3%

3PT %

◀

33.0

26.3%

88.4

PPG

◀

85.2

77.9

21.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.7

14.7

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · wehoop