Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CON?

The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+9NY

8-4

8980

CON

2-11

WNBAMon, Jun 8FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-0VegasNY -12.5

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Olivia Nelson-Ododa

C · #10

15.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:55

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	34	28	9-17	1-4	9-9	+10	9	3
L. FiebichF · #13	28	5	2-5	1-3	—	+7	7	1
H. XuC · #21	22	14	4-8	1-2	5-6	+13	6	2
M. JohannesG · #23	24	7	2-7	1-5	2-2	+12	4	3
P. AstierG · #18	26	6	2-8	0-1	2-2	+9	3	4
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	19	9	4-6	1-3	—	0	2	2
R. CarreraF · #14	13	7	2-3	0-1	3-4	+1	5	1
R. GardnerG · #7	8	2	1-1	—	—	-4	1	0
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	18	11	3-6	1-3	4-6	0	5	0
M. FauthouxG · #4	6	0	—	—	—	-3	0	1
Team		89	29-61	6-22	25-29		42	17
DNP: A. Maley, J. Jones, R. Allen, S. Ionescu

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	28	15	6-15	—	3-3	-14	5	0
D. MillerF · #1	23	10	4-8	2-4	—	-12	2	2
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	26	15	6-6	—	3-4	-3	8	1
S. RiversG · #22	29	12	6-15	0-2	0-4	-12	5	3
L. LacanG · #47	26	7	3-9	1-4	0-1	-16	0	7
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	14	4	2-3	—	—	-6	2	0
N. AnglomaF · #33	12	7	2-3	—	3-7	+4	2	2
K. BurkeG · #25	15	1	0-3	0-1	1-1	0	1	0
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	14	4	2-3	—	—	+7	2	2
G. KneepkensG · #5	13	5	1-5	0-2	3-3	+7	1	4
Team		80	32-70	3-13	13-23		28	21
DNP: A. Morrow, B. Griner, H. Van Lith, A. Jackson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CON

Home

29-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-70

FG %

6-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

3-13

25-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 2-0

May 8

CON75@

NY106

Jun 8

NY89@

CON80today

Aug 15

NY@

CONupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-85089%

CON+57515%

70· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -12.5↗SpreadBet NY -12.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

+1.0 since open

Total

162.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat CON 89-80. B. Stewart paced them with 28 PTS, 9 REB, 3 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST

GS 48

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 13 REB · 4 AST

GS 15

CONstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY3rd Quarter · 7:55 · 40-35

+8pp→ 84% WP

Pauline Astier · makes 2-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	23	15	27	24	89
CON	18	17	21	24	80

Period scoring

NY won 2 · CON won 1

Johannes 5

Miller 5

Stewart 10

Angloma 5

Stewart 7

Nelson-Ododa 6

Stewart 7

Miller 14

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

48%

29-61

46%

32-70

27%

6-22

3PT

23%

3-13

86%

25-29

57%

13-23

Play-by-play · 440 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 89·CON 80
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 89·CON 80
Q4·3.9
Breanna Stewart makes 4-foot two point shot
NY 89·CON 80
Q4·7.2
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton enters the game for Han Xu
·
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·7.2
Liberty Full timeout
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·10.8
Leonie Fiebich defensive rebound
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·14.5
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·14.5
Han Xu enters the game for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
·
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·14.5
Sun offensive team rebound
NY 87·CON 80
−0.7pp
Q4·14.5
Saniya Rivers misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 87·CON 80
−1pp
Q4·14.5
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton personal foul
NY 87·CON 80
+1pp
Q4·24.8
Sun timeout
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·24.8
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton enters the game for Han Xu
·
NY 87·CON 80
Q4·24.8
Breanna Stewart makes two point shot
NY 87·CON 80
−1pp
Q4·24.8
Breanna Stewart offensive rebound
NY 85·CON 80
−2pp
Q4·25.8
Breanna Stewart misses 4-foot tip shot
NY 85·CON 80
+2pp
Q4·26.8
Breanna Stewart offensive rebound
NY 85·CON 80
−2pp
Q4·27.4
Saniya Rivers blocks Pauline Astier 's 4-foot driving layup
·
NY 85·CON 80
+0.8pp
Q4·45.9
Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 85·CON 80
−3pp
Q4·45.9
Han Xu enters the game for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
·
NY 85·CON 79
Q4·45.9
Aaliyah Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 85·CON 79
+0.8pp
Q4·45.9
Satou Sabally personal foul
NY 85·CON 78
+4pp
Q4·45.9
Aaliyah Edwards defensive rebound
NY 85·CON 78
Q4·46.7
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 85·CON 78
+0.6pp
Q4·1:05
Pauline Astier defensive rebound
NY 85·CON 78
−0.6pp
Q4·1:11
Diamond Miller misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 85·CON 78
−2pp
Q4·1:19
Sun Full timeout
NY 85·CON 78
Q4·1:19
Pauline Astier enters the game for Han Xu
·
NY 85·CON 78
Q4·1:19
Han Xu makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 85·CON 78
+0.5pp
Q4·1:19
Liberty offensive team rebound
NY 84·CON 78
+1pp

Betting line

NY -12.5·O/U 162.5·NY -850/CON +575

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 89–80.

CON +12.5 cashed (NY won by 9). Total cleared the 162.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

eFG%

shooting

52.5%

47.9%

TOV%

ball control

20.5%

11.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.0%

17.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

41.0%

18.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179
Kennedy BurkeCON · G
ORB%.05871

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

12.3%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
27.3%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
25.7%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
22.3%
P(CON win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.63

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+470

Close price

+575

Open no-vig

16.8%

Close no-vig

14.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at CON?: The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.5pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

-620DraftKings

edge +4.5pp · implied 81.2%

CON

no live price

Book	NY	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-620★	+400	+4.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.8± 8.7high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.8± 6.4high
Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.6± 3.2high
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.8high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.1high

Assists

Sabrina IonescuNY
4.7± 1.6high
Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.1high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.5low
Breanna StewartNY
1.3± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New York LibertyConnecticut Sun

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop