Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2IND

IND

6-5

7876

WSH

4-6

WNBAMon, Jun 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasIND -5.5

IND · top performer

Aliyah Boston

C · #7

12.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Michaela Onyenwere

F · #12

12.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 75pp · 4th Quarter · 2.5

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	19	4	2-9	0-2	—	+12	2	0
A. BostonC · #7	24	14	4-7	—	6-7	0	10	3
K. MitchellG · #0	31	15	6-14	1-6	2-2	+5	2	3
L. HullG · #10	22	8	3-3	2-2	—	+4	3	0
C. ClarkG · #22	31	19	7-16	4-10	1-3	-1	3	5
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	18	5	2-2	—	1-2	-1	4	1
M. TimpsonF · #21	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	1
D. DantasC · #12	12	3	1-3	1-2	—	-6	1	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	23	8	3-8	2-4	—	-6	2	3
T. HarrisG · #52	11	2	1-4	0-3	—	+1	1	3
R. JohnsonG · #3	7	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
Team		78	29-66	10-29	10-14		28	19
DNP: G. VanSlooten

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. OnyenwereF · #12	24	17	4-7	3-4	6-6	+6	2	1
K. IriafenF · #44	8	2	1-2	—	—	-9	2	1
S. AustinC · #0	34	10	4-11	0-1	2-4	-2	9	4
S. CitronG · #22	38	12	3-9	2-4	4-4	-5	0	5
G. AmooreG · #8	29	12	4-6	4-4	—	+2	1	4
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	18	7	3-5	0-1	1-2	-3	5	1
L. BettsC · #51	12	8	4-5	—	—	+1	3	1
C. McMahonG · #23	22	7	2-10	0-3	3-4	+7	7	3
C. ProsperG · #18	6	1	0-2	0-1	1-4	-3	1	0
A. FlorezG · #2	9	0	0-1	—	—	-4	1	1
Team		76	25-58	9-18	17-24		31	21
DNP: R. Harmon, L. Olsen

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

29-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

25-58

FG %

10-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-18

10-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 15

WSH104@

IND102

Jun 8

IND78@

WSH76today

Sep 20

WSH@

INDupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

171.5

High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND-22569%

WSH+18535%

15· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -5.5↗SpreadBet IND -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+1.0 since open

Total

171.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat WSH 78-76. A. Boston led with 14 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 22-13 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST

GS 35

Bench(6)

18 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST

GS 13

WSHstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 14 REB · 15 AST

GS 41

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH4th Quarter · 4.3 · 75-74

+27pp→ 71% WP

Lexie Hull · shooting foul

IND4th Quarter · 2.5 · 78-76

+75pp→ 94% WP

Caitlin Clark · makes 31-foot three point jumper (Sophie Cunningham assists)

WSH4th Quarter · 1:31 · 73-72

+43pp→ 43% WP

Aliyah Boston · lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	21	22	17	18	78
WSH	16	13	24	23	76

Period scoring

IND won 2 · WSH won 2

Clark 10

Onyenwere 7

Mitchell 7

Citron 5

Cunningham 5

Onyenwere 16

Hull 5

Onyenwere 7

IND

WSH

Shooting comparison

IND

WSH

44%

29-66

43%

25-58

34%

10-29

3PT

50%

9-18

71%

10-14

71%

17-24

Play-by-play · 426 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 78·WSH 76
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 78·WSH 76
−3pp
Q4·0.1
Mystics offensive team rebound
IND 78·WSH 76
Q4·0.1
Michaela Onyenwere misses 8-foot fade away jump shot
IND 78·WSH 76
Q4·1.2
Georgia Amoore enters the game for Alicia Florez Getino
·
IND 78·WSH 76
Q4·1.2
Mystics timeout
IND 78·WSH 76
−3pp
Q4·2.5
Caitlin Clark makes 31-foot three point jumper (Sophie Cunningham assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 78·WSH 76
−75pp
Q4·4.3
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Raven Johnson
·
IND 75·WSH 76
Q4·4.3
Fever Full timeout
IND 75·WSH 76
Q4·4.3
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 75·WSH 76
+2pp
Q4·4.3
Alicia Florez Getino enters the game for Georgia Amoore
·
IND 75·WSH 75
Q4·4.3
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 75·WSH 75
+9pp
Q4·4.3
Lexie Hull shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 75·WSH 74
+27pp
Q4·11.3
Raven Johnson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 75·WSH 74
Q4·11.3
Mystics Full timeout
IND 75·WSH 74
Q4·11.3
Kelsey Mitchell makes running layup (Caitlin Clark assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 75·WSH 74
−10pp
Q4·16.0
Shakira Austin lost ball turnover (Aliyah Boston steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 73·WSH 74
−12pp
Q4·34.0
Michaela Onyenwere defensive rebound
IND 73·WSH 74
Q4·36.0
Caitlin Clark misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 74
+14pp
Q4·36.0
Fever offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 74
+7pp
Q4·36.0
Caitlin Clark misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 74
+9pp
Q4·36.0
Georgia Amoore shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 74
−15pp
Q4·41.4
Fever Full timeout
IND 73·WSH 74
+0.6pp
Q4·51.5
Shakira Austin makes driving layup (Sonia Citron assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 73·WSH 74
+18pp
Q4·1:01
Mystics Full timeout
IND 73·WSH 72
Q4·1:01
Lexie Hull kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 72
−11pp
Q4·1:11
Georgia Amoore defensive rebound
IND 73·WSH 72
+3pp
Q4·1:14
Sophie Cunningham misses layupBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 72
+9pp
Q4·1:31
Aliyah Boston lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 72
+43pp
Q4·1:31
Michaela Onyenwere makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 72
−9pp

Betting line

IND -5.5·O/U 171.5·IND -225/WSH +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 78–76. Decided by 2.

WSH +5.5 cashed (IND won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 171.5 by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

WSH

eFG%

shooting

51.5%

50.9%

TOV%

ball control

19.1%

18.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

10.3%

16.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

15.2%

29.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Kelsey MitchellIND · G
USG%.26287

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

27.6%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
42.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
38.4%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
37.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.89

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+170

Close price

+185

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

33.6%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.7pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

IND

no live price

WSH

★ best

+700DraftKings

edge +19.7pp · implied 11.9%

Book	IND	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-1300	+700★	+19.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Shakira AustinWSH
16.8± 5.6high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.8± 3.7high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.0± 3.6high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.8± 2.0high
Georgia AmooreWSH
3.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.6± 1.3high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.2± 1.2high
Sonia CitronWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverWashington Mystics

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop