IND
6-5
WSH
4-6
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever went into Washington Mystics and beat them, 78–76. Decided by 2.
WSH +5.5 cashed (IND won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 171.5 by 17.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
14
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
WSH · top performer
Michaela Onyenwere
F · #12
17
Pts
2
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Indiana Fever at Washington Mystics · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 19 | 4 | 2-9 | 0-2 | — | +12 | 2 | 0 | |
| 24 | 14 | 4-7 | — | 6-7 | 0 | 10 | 3 | |
| 31 | 15 | 6-14 | 1-6 | 2-2 | +5 | 2 | 3 | |
| 22 | 8 | 3-3 | 2-2 | — | +4 | 3 | 0 | |
| 31 | 19 | 7-16 | 4-10 | 1-3 | -1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 5 | 2-2 | — | 1-2 | -1 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +3 | 0 | 1 | |
| 12 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 8 | 3-8 | 2-4 | — | -6 | 2 | 3 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | — | +1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 7 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 78 | 29-66 | 10-29 | 10-14 | 28 | 19 | ||
| DNP: G. VanSlooten | ||||||||
DNP: G. VanSlooten
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 17 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 6-6 | +6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 34 | 10 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 2-4 | -2 | 9 | 4 | |
| 38 | 12 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 4-4 | -5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 29 | 12 | 4-6 | 4-4 | — | +2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -3 | 5 | 1 | |
| 12 | 8 | 4-5 | — | — | +1 | 3 | 1 | |
| 22 | 7 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 3-4 | +7 | 7 | 3 | |
| 6 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-4 | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 76 | 25-58 | 9-18 | 17-24 | 31 | 21 | ||
| DNP: R. Harmon, L. Olsen | ||||||||
DNP: R. Harmon, L. Olsen
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
43
19
Ast
21
Season series
Series tied 1-1
WSH104@IND102IND78@WSH76todayWSH@INDupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
171.5
High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
IND-22569%WSH+18535%15· 6.5h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+1.0 since open
Total
171.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 75pp · 4th Quarter · 2.5
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 24 minDouble-double
14 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST
WSHM. Onyenwere
FGame leader · 24 min
17 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
IND beat WSH 78-76. A. Boston led with 14 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 22-13 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
60 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST
GS 35
Bench(6)
18 PTS · 8 REB · 8 AST
GS 13
WSHstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
53 PTS · 14 REB · 15 AST
GS 41
Bench(5)
23 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLexie Hull · shooting foul
Caitlin Clark · makes 31-foot three point jumper (Sophie Cunningham assists)
Aliyah Boston · lost ball turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 21 | 22 | 17 | 18 | 78 |
| WSH | 16 | 13 | 24 | 23 | 76 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · WSH won 2
Q1
Clark 10
Onyenwere 7
Q2
Mitchell 7
Citron 5
Q3
Cunningham 5
Onyenwere 16
Q4
Hull 5
Onyenwere 7
Shooting comparison
44%
29-66
FG
43%
25-58
34%
10-29
3PT
50%
9-18
71%
10-14
FT
71%
17-24
Play-by-play · 426 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 78·WSH 76
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 78·WSH 76
−3pp
- Q4·0.1
Mystics offensive team rebound
IND 78·WSH 76
- Q4·0.1
Michaela Onyenwere misses 8-foot fade away jump shot
IND 78·WSH 76
- Q4·1.2
Georgia Amoore enters the game for Alicia Florez Getino
·
IND 78·WSH 76
- Q4·1.2
Mystics timeout
IND 78·WSH 76
−3pp
- Q4·2.5
Caitlin Clark makes 31-foot three point jumper (Sophie Cunningham assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 78·WSH 76
−75pp
- Q4·4.3
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Raven Johnson
·
IND 75·WSH 76
- Q4·4.3
Fever Full timeout
IND 75·WSH 76
- Q4·4.3
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 75·WSH 76
+2pp
- Q4·4.3
Alicia Florez Getino enters the game for Georgia Amoore
·
IND 75·WSH 75
- Q4·4.3
Sonia Citron makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 75·WSH 75
+9pp
- Q4·4.3
Lexie Hull shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 75·WSH 74
+27pp
- Q4·11.3
Raven Johnson enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 75·WSH 74
- Q4·11.3
Mystics Full timeout
IND 75·WSH 74
- Q4·11.3
Kelsey Mitchell makes running layup (Caitlin Clark assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 75·WSH 74
−10pp
- Q4·16.0
Shakira Austin lost ball turnover (Aliyah Boston steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 73·WSH 74
−12pp
- Q4·34.0
Michaela Onyenwere defensive rebound
IND 73·WSH 74
- Q4·36.0
Caitlin Clark misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 74
+14pp
- Q4·36.0
Fever offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 74
+7pp
- Q4·36.0
Caitlin Clark misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 74
+9pp
- Q4·36.0
Georgia Amoore shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 74
−15pp
- Q4·41.4
Fever Full timeout
IND 73·WSH 74
+0.6pp
- Q4·51.5
Shakira Austin makes driving layup (Sonia Citron assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 73·WSH 74
+18pp
- Q4·1:01
Mystics Full timeout
IND 73·WSH 72
- Q4·1:01
Lexie Hull kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 72
−11pp
- Q4·1:11
Georgia Amoore defensive rebound
IND 73·WSH 72
+3pp
- Q4·1:14
Sophie Cunningham misses layupBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 72
+9pp
- Q4·1:31
Aliyah Boston lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 72
+43pp
- Q4·1:31
Michaela Onyenwere makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 73·WSH 72
−9pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
29-66
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
25-58
44
FG %
43
10-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-18
10-14
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-24
19
Assists
21
17
Turnovers
15
Betting line
IND -5.5·O/U 171.5·IND -225/WSH +185
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Caitlin ClarkIND · GUSG%.30497
Kiki IriafenWSH · FDRB%.30197- Aliyah BostonIND · CDRB%.28196
Shakira AustinWSH · CDRB%.28195
Kelsey MitchellIND · GUSG%.26287
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
24.9%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
42.9%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
41.7%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
41.3%
P(WSH win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.68 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.89
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+170
Close price
+185
Open no-vig
35.5%
Close no-vig
33.6%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+14.1pp
best edge · WSH · DraftKings
IND
no live price
WSH
★ bestedge +14.1pp · implied 11.9%
| Book | IND | WSH | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1300 | +700★ | +14.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
WSH vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.6± 9.7medium
- Kelsey MitchellIND18.9± 3.7medium
- Aliyah BostonIND17.0± 9.7low
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Aliyah BostonIND8.5± 4.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 4.2low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.5± 2.4medium
- Alicia FlorezWSH3.4± 3.4low
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.4± 2.6low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.7low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.7± 0.7medium
Steals
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 0.8low
- Aliyah BostonIND1.0± 1.1low
- Kelsey MitchellIND1.0± 1.2medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
WSH
45.0%
FG%
44.3
44.5%
32.6%
3PT %
33.0
29.3%
89.9
PPG
85.2
81.4
21.0
Assists / G
18.0
18.8
15.0
Turnovers / G
13.0
16.3