Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7CHI

CHI

3-1

8679

MIN

2-2

WNBASun, May 17FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasMIN -5.5

CHI · top performer

Gabriela Jaquez

G · #11

16.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Kayla McBride

G · #21

16.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 22pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:16

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. JacksonF · #5	11	6	3-6	0-2	—	-7	1	0
K. CardosoC · #10	26	11	5-8	—	1-3	+12	12	4
N. CloudG · #9	32	11	5-9	1-3	0-2	+13	6	7
J. SheldonG · #0	32	10	3-7	1-3	3-3	+9	1	2
G. JaquezG · #11	32	20	6-11	1-2	7-7	+5	8	1
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	14	2	1-3	—	—	-5	8	0
R. BanhamG · #24	23	13	5-12	2-6	1-2	+7	1	0
A. CoulibalyG · #35	21	8	1-8	0-1	6-6	+5	1	1
S. TaylorG · #12	10	5	1-3	1-3	2-2	-4	1	2
Team		86	30-67	6-20	20-25		39	17
DNP: A. Stevens, C. Vandersloot, S. Diggins, D. Carrington

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	29	17	8-15	0-1	1-4	+3	9	7
N. CoffeyF · #12	25	2	1-4	0-3	—	-1	3	2
K. McBrideG · #21	40	20	8-17	2-6	2-2	-7	7	1
C. WilliamsG · #10	30	17	7-19	3-6	—	-10	5	3
O. MilesG · #5	35	13	4-10	1-4	4-4	+1	6	2
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	6	0	—	—	—	-9	0	1
A. KosuF · #7	6	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
E. HofC · #25	11	3	1-3	—	1-2	-10	3	2
M. CaldwellG · #3	16	5	2-4	1-2	—	-5	2	2
E. HamzovaG · #11	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
Team		79	32-73	7-22	8-12		35	20
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

30-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-73

FG %

6-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-22

20-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 17

CHI86@

MIN79today

May 23

MIN85@

CHI75

May 29

MIN79@

CHI58

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

166.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+20033%

MIN-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -5.5↗SpreadBet MIN -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

166.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat MIN 86-79. G. Jaquez led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. CHI outscored the other side 24-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST

GS 51

Bench(4)

28 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 15

MINstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 47

Bench(5)

10 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 1:40 · 59-51

+16pp→ 85% WP

Courtney Williams · misses 19-foot pullup jump shot

MIN4th Quarter · 22.9 · 81-78

+19pp→ 23% WP

Natasha Cloud · shooting foul

MIN3rd Quarter · 2:16 · 59-51

+22pp→ 22% WP

Natasha Howard · out of bounds bad pass turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	16	24	23	23	86
MIN	22	16	18	23	79

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · MIN won 1

Jackson 6

Howard 6

Sheldon 7

McBride 8

Jaquez 7

Howard 7

Jaquez 7

Miles 45

CHI

MIN

Shooting comparison

CHI

MIN

45%

30-67

44%

32-73

30%

6-20

3PT

32%

7-22

80%

20-25

67%

8-12

Play-by-play · 415 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of GameBIG MOMENT
CHI 86·MIN 79
−18pp
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 84·MIN 79
−0.9pp
Q4·2.5
Olivia Miles bad pass turnover (Jacy Sheldon steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 86·MIN 79
−18pp
Q4·3.9
Olivia Miles offensive rebound
CHI 84·MIN 79
Q4·7.5
Courtney Williams misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
CHI 84·MIN 79
+0.5pp
Q4·10.8
Lynx Full timeout
CHI 84·MIN 79
−2pp
Q4·10.8
Gabriela Jaquez makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 84·MIN 79
+3pp
Q4·10.8
Gabriela Jaquez makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 83·MIN 79
Q4·10.8
Nia Coffey personal foul
CHI 82·MIN 79
−1pp
Q4·13.9
Olivia Miles bad pass turnover (Aicha Coulibaly steals)
·
CHI 82·MIN 79
Q4·16.5
Kayla McBride makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
CHI 82·MIN 79
−5pp
Q4·16.5
Natasha Cloud away from play foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 82·MIN 78
+5pp
Q4·16.5
Aicha Coulibaly enters the game for Rachel Banham
·
CHI 82·MIN 78
Q4·16.5
Lynx Full timeout
CHI 82·MIN 78
Q4·16.5
Kayla McBride defensive rebound
CHI 82·MIN 78
Q4·16.5
Rachel Banham misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 82·MIN 78
+2pp
Q4·16.5
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
· ·
CHI 82·MIN 78
Q4·16.5
Rachel Banham makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 82·MIN 78
Q4·16.5
Courtney Williams personal foul
·
CHI 81·MIN 78
−2pp
Q4·18.2
Sky timeout
CHI 81·MIN 78
+2pp
Q4·18.2
Kayla McBride personal take foul
CHI 81·MIN 78
−3pp
Q4·20.9
Kamilla Cardoso defensive rebound
CHI 81·MIN 78
Q4·22.9
Natasha Howard misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 81·MIN 78
−5pp
Q4·22.9
Lynx offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 81·MIN 78
−5pp
Q4·22.9
Natasha Howard misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 81·MIN 78
−9pp
Q4·22.9
Natasha Cloud shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 81·MIN 78
+19pp
Q4·26.2
Natasha Howard defensive rebound
CHI 81·MIN 78
Q4·31.0
Jacy Sheldon misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 81·MIN 78
+0.8pp
Q4·44.0
Kamilla Cardoso enters the game for Aicha Coulibaly
·
CHI 81·MIN 78
Q4·44.0
Rachel Banham enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
· ·
CHI 81·MIN 78

Betting line

MIN -5.5·O/U 166.5·CHI +200/MIN -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hicago Sky went into Minnesota Lynx and beat them, 86–79.

CHI +5.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 166.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

MIN

eFG%

shooting

49.3%

48.6%

TOV%

ball control

15.2%

16.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.0%

21.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

29.9%

11.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391
Olivia MilesMIN · G
TS%.65191
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

79.9%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
83.8%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
82.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
78.8%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-198

Close price

-218

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

65.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.4pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

CHI

no live price

MIN

★ best

-245DraftKings

edge +14.4pp · implied 68.1%

Book	CHI	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+200	-245★	+14.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high
Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkyMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop