Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LA?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+10TOR

TOR

2-2

10696

1-3

WNBASun, May 17FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-1VegasLA -7.5

TOR · top performer

Brittney Sykes

G · #20

29.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LA · top performer

Dearica Hamby

F · #5

22.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ LA

Biggest swing: 13pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:17

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	20	7	3-4	—	1-1	+10	4	4
L. JuskaiteF · #2	21	7	3-5	0-1	1-2	+1	5	1
B. SykesG · #20	38	38	10-21	3-8	15-15	+7	1	3
M. MabreyG · #3	26	14	2-7	2-4	8-8	+2	3	4
K. RiceG · #1	35	19	5-8	1-3	8-10	+5	5	2
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	23	5	2-6	1-4	—	+5	0	3
T. KeyF · #7	20	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	0	7	0
K. NurseG · #11	12	10	2-4	2-3	4-4	+15	0	0
L. HeldG · #12	5	0	—	—	—	+5	0	0
Team		106	29-61	9-24	39-42		25	17
DNP: M. Fasoula

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	31	17	6-10	2-3	3-4	-10	7	3
D. HambyF · #5	31	21	7-11	1-2	6-8	-1	9	3
E. WheelerG · #17	30	4	1-9	0-3	2-3	-4	2	7
K. PlumG · #10	36	28	9-14	1-3	9-11	-6	1	7
R. BurrellG · #12	18	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-2	3	2
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	18	7	3-4	0-1	1-2	-9	2	2
JihyunF · #6	8	2	1-3	0-2	—	-12	1	2
K. MartinG · #21	18	11	4-7	3-6	—	+9	0	0
C. GrayG · #2	10	4	2-4	0-2	—	-15	1	0
Team		96	33-64	7-23	23-30		26	26
DNP: E. Cannon, T. Latson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

29-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-64

FG %

9-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-23

39-42

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 16

TOR95@

LA99

May 17

TOR106@

LA96today

Jun 25

LA97@

TOR125

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

TOR+26028%

LA-32576%

15· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -7.5↗SpreadBet LA -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

173.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat LA 106-96. B. Sykes led the way with 38 points and 3 assists.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LA vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST

GS 70

Bench(4)

21 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

GS 14

LAstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 22 REB · 22 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR2nd Quarter · 3:00 · 45-34

+8pp→ 72% WP

Brittney Sykes · blocks Kelsey Plum 's 4-foot driving layup

LA3rd Quarter · 7:17 · 54-46

+13pp→ 34% WP

Nyara Sabally · vs. Kelsey Plum

LA4th Quarter · 4:29 · 89-81

+8pp→ 19% WP

Marina Mabrey · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	27	22	30	27	106
LA	21	19	27	29	96

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · LA won 1

Sykes 7

Plum 8

Sykes 7

Ogwumike 7

Sykes 11

Plum 10

Sykes 13

Plum 10

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

48%

29-61

52%

33-64

38%

9-24

3PT

30%

7-23

93%

39-42

77%

23-30

Play-by-play · 431 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 106·LA 96
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 106·LA 96
Q4·5.2
Kiki Rice defensive rebound
TOR 106·LA 96
Q4·7.2
Kate Martin misses running pullup jump shot
TOR 106·LA 96
Q4·11.0
Brittney Sykes bad pass turnover (Kate Martin steals)
·
TOR 106·LA 96
Q4·32.5
Dearica Hamby makes two point shot
TOR 106·LA 96
Q4·32.5
Dearica Hamby offensive rebound
TOR 106·LA 94
Q4·36.4
Kelsey Plum misses 23-foot three point jumper
TOR 106·LA 94
Q4·44.1
Brittney Sykes makes driving layup
TOR 106·LA 94
Q4·1:00
Kate Martin makes 25-foot three pointer (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
TOR 104·LA 94
Q4·1:06
Dearica Hamby enters the game for Cameron Brink
·
TOR 104·LA 91
Q4·1:06
Kiki Rice makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 104·LA 91
Q4·1:06
Kiki Rice makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 103·LA 91
Q4·1:06
Cameron Brink personal foul
TOR 102·LA 91
Q4·1:06
Kiki Rice defensive rebound
TOR 102·LA 91
Q4·1:07
Erica Wheeler misses two point shot
TOR 102·LA 91
Q4·1:15
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 102·LA 91
Q4·1:15
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 101·LA 91
Q4·1:15
Kelsey Plum shooting foul
TOR 100·LA 91
−0.5pp
Q4·1:24
Nneka Ogwumike bad pass turnover (Brittney Sykes steals)
·
TOR 100·LA 91
−1pp
Q4·1:28
Sparks timeout
TOR 100·LA 91
Q4·1:28
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 100·LA 91
+0.9pp
Q4·1:28
Cameron Brink enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
TOR 99·LA 91
Q4·1:28
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 99·LA 91
Q4·1:28
Kelsey Plum personal foul
TOR 98·LA 91
−2pp
Q4·1:34
Kelsey Plum makes driving layup
TOR 98·LA 91
+1pp
Q4·1:41
Maria Conde makes 1-foot layup (Brittney Sykes assists)
·
TOR 98·LA 89
−3pp
Q4·2:06
Kelsey Plum makes running layup
TOR 96·LA 89
+2pp
Q4·2:11
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
TOR 96·LA 87
Q4·2:13
Teonni Key misses layup
TOR 96·LA 87
+0.9pp

Betting line

LA -7.5·O/U 173.5·TOR +260/LA -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 106–96.

TOR +7.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total cleared the 173.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

eFG%

shooting

54.9%

57.0%

TOV%

ball control

13.1%

14.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

34.6%

36.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

63.9%

35.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.9%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
54.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.29

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+240

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

28.2%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LA?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.6pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+260DraftKings

edge +20.6pp · implied 26.6%

no live price

Book	TOR	LA	Best edge
DraftKings	+260★	-325	+20.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
0.7± 0.8medium

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoLos Angeles Sparks

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop