Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LV

4-1

8584

ATL

2-1

WNBASun, May 17FinalSeriesLV leads series 1-0VegasLV -3.5

LV · top performer

Chelsea Gray

G · #12

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Allisha Gray

G · #15

15.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 47pp · 4th Quarter · 3.6

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	16	0	0-1	—	—	+2	5	2
N. SmithF · #3	20	13	6-7	0-1	1-3	+6	6	1
A. WilsonC · #22	31	20	6-12	2-2	6-7	-3	6	1
C. GrayG · #12	33	21	8-13	5-8	—	+4	5	6
J. YoungG · #0	34	0	0-12	0-5	—	+6	7	7
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	9	4	2-5	0-1	—	-3	1	0
B. TurnerF · #21	6	0	—	—	—	+5	1	0
J. LoydG · #24	29	7	2-10	2-8	1-2	-11	5	1
C. CarterG · #23	21	20	7-13	1-2	5-5	-1	2	3
Team		85	31-73	10-27	13-17		38	21
DNP: K. Bell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	30	6	2-9	0-3	2-4	+5	5	0
A. ReeseF · #5	29	9	1-8	0-1	7-8	-13	8	3
A. GrayG · #15	37	25	8-18	1-5	8-11	+1	9	1
J. CanadaG · #3	33	11	4-8	0-2	3-3	-20	3	5
T. PaopaoG · #2	36	19	5-14	4-9	5-6	+6	2	2
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	-7	0	0
M. OkotC · #11	16	14	7-12	0-2	0-1	+18	11	1
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
I. NivarG · #21	10	0	0-2	—	0-4	+3	6	3
I. BorlaseG · #20	4	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
Team		84	27-73	5-23	25-37		45	15

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

31-73

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-73

FG %

10-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-23

13-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-37

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV leads series 1-0

May 17

LV85@

ATL84today

Aug 3

LV@

ATLupcoming

Aug 19

ATL@

LVupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -3.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

171.5

High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

LV-16262%

ATL+13642%

6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -3.5↗SpreadBet LV -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

-2.0 since open

Total

171.5

+6.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat ATL 85-84. C. Gray led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 21-10 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 29 REB · 17 AST

GS 43

Bench(4)

31 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 18

ATLstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 27 REB · 11 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

14 PTS · 18 REB · 4 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 2:16 · 81-80

+16pp→ 40% WP

Te-Hina Paopao · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Angel Reese assists)

LV4th Quarter · 22.6 · 83-84

+34pp→ 62% WP

Jordin Canada · personal foul

LV4th Quarter · 3.6 · 85-84

+47pp→ 84% WP

Chelsea Gray · makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Stephanie Talbot assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	24	27	24	10	85
ATL	23	21	19	21	84

Period scoring

LV won 3 · ATL won 1

Gray 7

Paopao 7

Wilson 9

Gray 10

Carter 8

Gray 6

Smith 3

Gray 8

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

42%

31-73

37%

27-73

37%

10-27

3PT

22%

5-23

76%

13-17

68%

25-37

Play-by-play · 460 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 85·ATL 84
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
LV 85·ATL 84
−7pp
Q4·2.5
Allisha Gray lost ball turnover (Chelsea Gray steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 85·ATL 84
−9pp
Q4·3.6
Dream timeout
LV 85·ATL 84
Q4·3.6
Dream Full timeout
LV 85·ATL 84
Q4·3.6
Chelsea Gray makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Stephanie Talbot assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
LV 85·ATL 84
−47pp
Q4·8.5
Jackie Young vs. Allisha Gray (Stephanie Talbot gains possession)
· ·
LV 83·ATL 84
Q4·8.5
Jackie Young offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 83·ATL 84
−5pp
Q4·12.5
Chelsea Gray misses 5-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·ATL 84
+13pp
Q4·22.6
Aces Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
LV 83·ATL 84
+17pp
Q4·22.6
Jordin Canada personal foulBIG MOMENT
LV 83·ATL 84
−34pp
Q4·36.5
Jordin Canada makes running layupBIG MOMENT
LV 83·ATL 84
+15pp
Q4·41.0
A'ja Wilson lost ball turnover (Jordin Canada steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·ATL 82
+11pp
Q4·48.6
Aces Full timeout
LV 83·ATL 82
−2pp
Q4·59.9
Allisha Gray makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·ATL 82
−5pp
Q4·59.9
Allisha Gray makes free throw 1 of 2
·
LV 83·ATL 81
+2pp
Q4·59.9
A'ja Wilson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LV 83·ATL 80
+13pp
Q4·1:17
Jordin Canada defensive rebound
LV 83·ATL 80
+3pp
Q4·1:19
Jackie Young misses 13-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LV 83·ATL 80
+10pp
Q4·1:40
A'ja Wilson defensive rebound
LV 83·ATL 80
−3pp
Q4·1:42
Stephanie Talbot blocks Te-Hina Paopao's driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
LV 83·ATL 80
−6pp
Q4·1:56
A'ja Wilson makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
LV 83·ATL 80
−7pp
Q4·2:16
Te-Hina Paopao makes 23-foot three point jumper (Angel Reese assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LV 81·ATL 80
+16pp
Q4·2:23
Angel Reese offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LV 81·ATL 77
+5pp
Q4·2:25
Te-Hina Paopao misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LV 81·ATL 77
−6pp
Q4·2:30
Stephanie Talbot enters the game for Chennedy Carter
·
LV 81·ATL 77
Q4·2:30
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Indya Nivar
·
LV 81·ATL 77
Q4·2:30
Angel Reese enters the game for Madina Okot
·
LV 81·ATL 77
Q4·2:30
Dream Full timeout
LV 81·ATL 77
Q4·2:30
Jackie Young enters the game for Cheyenne Parker-Tyus
·
LV 81·ATL 77

Betting line

LV -3.5·O/U 171.5·LV -162/ATL +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 85–84. It came down to the final possession.

ATL +3.5 cashed (LV won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 171.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

eFG%

shooting

49.3%

40.4%

TOV%

ball control

13.9%

12.7%

OREB%

offensive glass

15.0%

25.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

17.8%

34.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.1%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
46.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
45.1%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
47.9%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+5.14

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+170

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.8pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

★ best

-162DraftKings

edge +4.8pp · implied 59.3%

ATL

no live price

Book	LV	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-162★	+136	+4.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
24.9± 8.3high
Allisha GrayATL
19.0± 4.3high
Jackie YoungLV
17.7± 8.7high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.6± 3.1high
A'ja WilsonLV
9.3± 3.8high
NaLyssa SmithLV
5.7± 3.4high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
7.7± 3.6high
Chelsea GrayLV
7.1± 2.1high
Jackie YoungLV
6.5± 3.1high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.8± 1.3high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.7± 1.1high
Shatori Walker-KimbroughATL
0.7± 1.1low

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.1± 0.7high
Angel ReeseATL
2.0± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop