Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at IND?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+11IND

SEA

1-3

7889

IND

2-2

WNBASun, May 17FinalSeriesIND wins series 3-0VegasIND -11.5

SEA · top performer

Natisha Hiedeman

G · #2

10.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Caitlin Clark

G · #22

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 8:25

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	15	2	1-5	0-1	—	0	2	3
S. DolsonC · #31	30	6	3-6	0-2	—	-6	5	2
N. HiedemanG · #2	31	19	7-18	3-6	2-2	-2	2	2
F. JohnsonG · #4	28	14	3-14	0-4	8-9	-2	6	0
J. MelbourneG · #5	29	12	3-7	0-2	6-6	-16	1	3
Bench
M. HolmesF · #54	10	4	2-3	—	—	-5	1	0
G. VanSlootenF · #40	18	5	2-4	0-1	1-4	-16	2	3
L. BrownG · #8	17	3	1-3	1-3	—	-5	4	0
Z. CookeG · #7	22	13	3-11	2-4	5-6	-3	1	4
Team		78	25-71	6-23	22-27		24	17
DNP: K. Samuelson, E. Magbegor, T. Thierry, D. Malonga, T. Mair

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	27	8	3-3	—	2-2	+16	6	4
M. BillingsF · #25	20	4	2-5	0-1	—	-1	5	1
K. MitchellG · #0	28	17	8-18	1-5	—	+21	0	2
L. HullG · #10	19	9	3-8	0-3	3-3	+9	4	2
C. ClarkG · #22	24	21	5-10	2-4	9-9	+6	7	10
Bench
M. TimpsonF · #21	18	6	3-7	—	—	+5	6	1
D. DantasC · #12	6	3	1-1	1-1	—	+12	0	0
S. Walker-KimbroughG · #32	3	0	0-1	—	—	-9	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	25	17	5-9	1-5	6-6	+4	3	0
T. HarrisG · #52	13	4	1-4	0-1	2-2	-8	4	1
R. JohnsonG · #3	17	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	3	1
Team		89	31-67	5-21	22-22		38	22
DNP: A. Boston

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

IND

Home

25-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-67

FG %

6-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-21

22-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

IND wins series 3-0

May 17

SEA78@

IND89today

Jul 17

SEA107@

IND110

Jul 29

IND105@

SEA95

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

176.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+49017%

IND-67587%

15· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -11.5↗SpreadBet IND -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

-1.0 since open

Total

176.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat SEA 89-78. C. Clark led with 21 PTS, 7 REB, 10 AST. IND outscored the other side 32-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 35

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST

GS 20

INDstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST

GS 49

Bench(6)

30 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST

GS 19

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	19	25	14	20	78
IND	32	23	22	12	89

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · IND won 2

Cooke 8

Clark 8

Hiedeman 6

Clark 9

Johnson 4

Cunningham 10

Hiedeman 6

Timpson 4

SEA

IND

Shooting comparison

SEA

IND

35%

25-71

46%

31-67

26%

6-23

3PT

24%

5-21

81%

22-27

100%

22-22

Play-by-play · 425 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·3.9
shot clock turnover
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·27.9
Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·27.9
Flau'jae Johnson misses 3-foot tip shot
·
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·28.4
Flau'jae Johnson offensive rebound
·
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·30.8
Zia Cooke misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·37.9
Natisha Hiedeman defensive rebound
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·39.0
Flau'jae Johnson blocks Sophie Cunningham 's 24-foot three point jumper
· ·
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·49.7
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·49.7
Jade Melbourne personal foul
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·57.7
Sophie Cunningham defensive rebound
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·59.9
Natisha Hiedeman misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·1:13
Sophie Cunningham out of bounds bad pass turnover
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·1:24
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
·
SEA 78·IND 89
Q4·1:24
Zia Cooke enters the game for Lexie Brown
·
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·1:24
Storm offensive team rebound
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·1:24
Flau'jae Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
·
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·1:24
Sophie Cunningham shooting foul
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·1:30
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough bad pass turnover (Flau'jae Johnson steals)
· ·
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·1:50
Makayla Timpson defensive rebound
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·1:53
Natisha Hiedeman misses running pullup jump shot
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·1:57
Lexie Brown defensive rebound
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·2:02
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·2:08
Fever offensive team rebound
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·2:09
Flau'jae Johnson blocks Sophie Cunningham 's 23-foot three point jumper
· ·
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·2:11
Makayla Timpson offensive rebound
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·2:13
Raven Johnson misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·2:23
Fever Full timeout
SEA 77·IND 89
Q4·2:26
Natisha Hiedeman makes 27-foot three pointer (Jade Melbourne assists)
·
SEA 77·IND 89

Betting line

IND -11.5·O/U 176.5·SEA +490/IND -675

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Seattle Storm, 89–78.

SEA +11.5 cashed (IND won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 176.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

IND

eFG%

shooting

39.4%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

8.8%

18.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

8.8%

25.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

31.0%

32.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Kelsey MitchellIND · G
USG%.26287
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · G
USG%.25283

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.4%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
68.6%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
72.7%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
73.6%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.54

CLV pp

Open price

+425

Close price

+410

Open no-vig

18.3%

Close no-vig

18.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at IND?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.8pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

+490DraftKings

edge +18.8pp · implied 16.3%

IND

no live price

Book	SEA	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+490★	-675	+18.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
16.6± 8.6high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
9.5± 3.3high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Awa FamSEA
6.6± 2.6high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.4± 2.5high
Jade MelbourneSEA
3.8± 1.0high

Blocks

Awa FamSEA
1.3± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.7± 1.2high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop