Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at PHX?

The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+8PHX

CHI

2-1

8391

PHX

2-2

WNBAFri, May 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPHX -4.5

CHI · top performer

Rickea Jackson

F · #5

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Jovana Nogic

G · #29

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 2:09

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. JacksonF · #5	32	29	10-22	4-10	5-6	-21	6	0
K. CardosoC · #10	23	7	2-6	—	3-4	-2	8	1
S. DigginsG · #4	12	0	0-5	0-2	—	-9	2	3
J. SheldonG · #0	26	8	3-6	1-2	1-1	-7	0	3
G. JaquezG · #11	29	13	4-5	0-1	5-7	-5	3	0
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	17	1	0-2	—	1-2	-5	4	1
N. CloudG · #9	23	7	3-8	0-2	1-3	-11	3	7
R. BanhamG · #24	16	5	2-5	1-3	—	0	0	1
A. CoulibalyG · #35	16	8	4-6	0-1	—	+12	1	0
S. TaylorG · #12	7	5	1-3	0-1	3-3	+8	0	0
Team		83	29-68	6-22	19-26		27	16
DNP: A. Stevens, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #24	33	8	3-7	0-2	2-2	+4	7	0
A. ThomasF · #25	33	17	5-10	—	7-7	+21	11	6
N. MackF · #4	30	10	3-8	—	4-6	+9	6	3
K. CopperG · #2	34	17	3-16	1-6	10-10	+8	5	1
J. NogicG · #29	31	27	6-11	5-8	10-11	+23	4	0
Bench
V. AyayiF · #11	12	8	3-6	0-2	2-3	-8	2	1
N. BrochantF · #1	11	2	1-1	—	—	+6	2	0
K. LinskensC · #31	8	0	0-2	0-2	—	-8	3	1
K. WilliamsG · #23	8	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-15	0	0
Team		91	24-62	6-21	37-41		40	12
DNP: A. Maley, S. Whitcomb, Q. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

29-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

24-62

FG %

6-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-21

19-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

37-41

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 16

CHI83@

PHX91today

Jul 8

CHI77@

PHX66

Aug 4

PHX@

CHIupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+15040%

PHX-18064%

13· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -4.5↗SpreadBet PHX -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

165.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat CHI 91-83. J. Nogic paced them with 27 PTS, 4 REB, 0 AST. Rickea Jackson's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST

GS 17

PHXstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 33 REB · 10 AST

GS 61

Bench(4)

12 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 5:06 · 75-76

+14pp→ 76% WP

Alyssa Thomas · makes free throw 1 of 2

CHI4th Quarter · 2:09 · 82-84

+17pp→ 45% WP

Natasha Mack · shooting foul

PHX4th Quarter · 2:09 · 83-84

+18pp→ 74% WP

Rickea Jackson · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	17	18	24	24	83
PHX	23	22	24	22	91

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · PHX won 2

Jackson 5

Nogic 11

Jaquez 7

Copper 7

Jackson 10

Thomas 6

Jackson 13

Thomas 9

CHI

PHX

Shooting comparison

CHI

PHX

43%

29-68

39%

24-62

27%

6-22

3PT

29%

6-21

73%

19-26

90%

37-41

Play-by-play · 450 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 83·PHX 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 83·PHX 91
Q4·3.7
Jovana Nogic lost ball turnover (Natasha Cloud steals)
·
CHI 83·PHX 91
Q4·19.2
Gabriela Jaquez bad pass turnover (Kahleah Copper steals)
·
CHI 83·PHX 91
Q4·27.1
Jacy Sheldon enters the game for Aicha Coulibaly
·
CHI 83·PHX 91
Q4·27.1
Sky timeout
CHI 83·PHX 91
Q4·27.1
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 83·PHX 91
Q4·27.1
Kahleah Copper makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 83·PHX 90
Q4·27.1
Gabriela Jaquez personal take foul
CHI 83·PHX 89
+0.8pp
Q4·28.9
Jovana Nogic offensive rebound
CHI 83·PHX 89
+0.9pp
Q4·31.0
Jovana Nogic misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 83·PHX 89
−2pp
Q4·31.0
Kamilla Cardoso enters the game for Jacy Sheldon
·
CHI 83·PHX 89
Q4·31.0
Jovana Nogic makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 83·PHX 89
Q4·31.0
Jacy Sheldon personal take foul
CHI 83·PHX 88
+0.9pp
Q4·34.7
Aicha Coulibaly enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
CHI 83·PHX 88
Q4·34.7
Mercury Full timeout
CHI 83·PHX 88
Q4·34.7
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
CHI 83·PHX 88
+0.6pp
Q4·37.2
Rickea Jackson misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 83·PHX 88
Q4·46.5
Sky Full timeout
CHI 83·PHX 88
+2pp
Q4·48.5
Kahleah Copper out of bounds lost ball turnover
CHI 83·PHX 88
−2pp
Q4·52.8
Rickea Jackson bad pass turnover (Kahleah Copper steals)
·
CHI 83·PHX 88
+3pp
Q4·1:07
Alyssa Thomas makes layup
CHI 83·PHX 88
+4pp
Q4·1:24
Kahleah Copper defensive rebound
CHI 83·PHX 86
+2pp
Q4·1:26
Natasha Cloud misses layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 83·PHX 86
+6pp
Q4·1:37
Jacy Sheldon enters the game for Aicha Coulibaly
·
CHI 83·PHX 86
Q4·1:37
Sky Full timeout
CHI 83·PHX 86
Q4·1:41
Alyssa Thomas makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 83·PHX 86
+7pp
Q4·1:52
Mercury offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 83·PHX 84
+7pp
Q4·1:54
DeWanna Bonner misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CHI 83·PHX 84
−6pp
Q4·2:06
Alyssa Thomas defensive rebound
CHI 83·PHX 84

Betting line

PHX -4.5·O/U 165.5·CHI +150/PHX -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hoenix Mercury held off Chicago Sky, 91–83.

PHX -4.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 165.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

PHX

eFG%

shooting

47.1%

43.5%

TOV%

ball control

12.2%

15.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

16.7%

32.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

27.9%

59.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.4%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
77.4%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
75.6%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
72.4%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.23

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-205

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at PHX?: The model favors PHX, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.5pp

best edge · PHX · DraftKings

CHI

no live price

PHX

★ best

-180DraftKings

edge +13.5pp · implied 61.6%

Book	CHI	PHX	Best edge
DraftKings	+150	-180★	+13.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHX vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Sydney TaylorCHI
15.9± 6.3high

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.2± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkyPhoenix Mercury

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop