May 13, 26sim 99
1798
18(H)69
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+7LV
LV
3-1
10194
CON
0-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 375 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 101–94.
CON +15.5 cashed (LV won by 7). Total cleared the 172.5 OVER by 22.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
40.0Game score
45
Pts
3
Reb
3
Ast
CON · top performer
Hailey Van Lith
G · #2
14.2Game score
17
Pts
1
Reb
4
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Connecticut Sun · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
LV3-1
10194
CON0-4
LV3-1CON0-4
LV
3-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 22 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +9 | |
| 17 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +12 | |
| 32 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +15 | |
| 31 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +5 | |
eFG%.52767 TS%.55156 AST/TO1.956 | ||||||||
| 31 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +21 | |
| 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -9 | |
| 27 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 | |
| 22 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | |
| Team | 101 | 28 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 17 | ||
| DNP: K. Bell, J. Barker, D. Evans | ||||||||
CON
0-4
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 17 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -18 | |
| 15 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 24 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -19 | |
| 22 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | |
| 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | |
| 27 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | |
| 17 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +14 | |
| 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4 | |
| 28 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 18 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| Team | 94 | 32 | 24 | 11 | 2 | 13 | ||
| DNP: B. Griner, O. Nelson-Ododa | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
60
FG %
44
24
Ast
24
Season series
LV leads series 2-0
May 14LV98@CON69
LV98@CON69May 15LV101@CON94today
LV101@CON94todayAug 21CON@LVupcoming
CON@LVupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -15.5
Between 10 and —
Total
172.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6h
Moneyline
LV-135093%CON+80011%100· 6h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
15.5
-1.0 since open
Total
172.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowLV ↔ CON
Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:13
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 32 min45-pt night
45 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST
CONH. Van Lith
GGame leader · 22 min
17 PTS · 1 REB · 4 AST
How it ended
LV beat CON 101-94. A. Wilson led the way with 45 points and 3 assists. LV outscored the other side 28-20 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
CON vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
75 PTS · 21 REB · 21 AST
GS 62
Bench(4)
26 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GS 22
CONstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
47 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST
GS 30
Bench(5)
47 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST
GS 41
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCON3rd Quarter · 1:13 · 72-70
+7pp→ 24% WP
Saniya Rivers · makes 24-foot running jump shot (Charlisse Leger-Walker assists)
LV3rd Quarter · 51.6 · 75-70
+7pp→ 83% WP
A'ja Wilson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 28 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 101 |
| CON | 20 | 24 | 27 | 23 | 94 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · CON won 2
28
20
Q1
Wilson 11
Burke 7
26
24
Q2
Wilson 8
Edwards 6
25
27
Q3
Wilson 12
Rivers 8
22
23
Q4
Wilson 13
Lith 13
LV
CON
Shooting comparison
LV
CON
60%
35-58
FG
44%
36-81
46%
6-13
3PT
36%
9-25
78%
25-32
FT
87%
13-15
Play-by-play · 413 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 101·CON 94
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 101·CON 94
- Q4·0.1
Sun offensive team rebound
LV 101·CON 94
- Q4·0.2
Aneesah Morrow misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
LV 101·CON 94
- Q4·3.8
Chennedy Carter lost ball turnover (Aneesah Morrow steals)
·
LV 101·CON 94
- Q4·24.9
Aneesah Morrow makes running layup
LV 101·CON 94
- Q4·29.8
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
LV 101·CON 92
- Q4·33.0
Jewell Loyd misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 101·CON 92
- Q4·48.6
Hailey Van Lith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gianna Kneepkens assists)
·
LV 101·CON 92
- Q4·59.8
Nell Angloma enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
LV 101·CON 89
- Q4·59.8
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
LV 101·CON 89
- Q4·59.8
Chennedy Carter enters the game for Jackie Young
·
LV 101·CON 89
- Q4·59.8
Stephanie Talbot personal foul
LV 101·CON 89
- Q4·1:05
Raegan Beers defensive rebound
LV 101·CON 89
- Q4·1:07
Jackie Young misses driving layup
LV 101·CON 89
- Q4·1:16
Hailey Van Lith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aneesah Morrow assists)
·
LV 101·CON 89
- Q4·1:30
A'ja Wilson makes 26-foot three point jumper
LV 101·CON 86
- Q4·1:43
Aneesah Morrow makes layup (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
LV 98·CON 86
- Q4·1:54
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup
LV 98·CON 84
- Q4·2:10
Hailey Van Lith makes 6-foot pullup jump shot (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
LV 96·CON 84
- Q4·2:39
A'ja Wilson makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
LV 96·CON 82
- Q4·2:53
Raegan Beers offensive foul turnover
LV 94·CON 82
- Q4·2:53
Raegan Beers offensive foul
LV 94·CON 82
- Q4·3:01
Sun Full timeout
LV 94·CON 82
- Q4·3:01
A'ja Wilson makes 4-foot pullup jump shot (Chelsea Gray assists)
·
LV 94·CON 82
- Q4·3:12
Raegan Beers makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 92·CON 82
−0.9pp
- Q4·3:12
Jewell Loyd shooting foul
LV 92·CON 81
+1pp
- Q4·3:12
Raegan Beers makes running layup (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
LV 92·CON 81
- Q4·3:16
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
LV 92·CON 79
- Q4·3:20
Jackie Young misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 92·CON 79
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
CON
Home
35-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-81
60
FG %
44
6-13
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-25
25-32
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-15
24
Assists
24
17
Turnovers
13
Betting line
LV -15.5·O/U 172.5·LV -1350/CON +800
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.1%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
31%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
36%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+1.49
CLV pp
Open price
+950
Close price
+800
Open no-vig
9.2%
Close no-vig
10.7%
Market came to the model · Graded: miss
Player projections
CON vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV24.0± 11.4low
- Chennedy CarterLV16.3± 10.0low
- Brittney GrinerCON12.8± 5.4low
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.9± 5.5low
- A'ja WilsonLV7.8± 6.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.4± 4.3low
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.3± 2.3low
- Jackie YoungLV5.6± 3.4low
- Saniya RiversCON3.7± 2.9low
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.1± 1.7low
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.1± 1.2low
- NaLyssa SmithLV1.0± 1.4low
Steals
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.6± 1.5low
- Kennedy BurkeCON1.1± 1.8low
- Saniya RiversCON1.1± 1.7low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
CON
49.5%
FG%
◀
44.6
40.8%
35.0%
3PT %
◀
32.6
26.1%
91.0
PPG
◀
85.4
75.6
22.6
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.9
13.8
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.9