Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at CON?

The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+7LV

3-1

10194

CON

0-4

WNBAFri, May 15FinalSeriesLV leads series 2-0VegasLV -15.5

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

40.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CON · top performer

Hailey Van Lith

G · #2

14.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ CON

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:13

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	22	1	—	—	1-2	+9	1	2
N. SmithF · #3	17	4	2-4	—	—	+12	4	0
A. WilsonC · #22	32	45	15-18	2-2	13-13	+15	3	3
C. GrayG · #12	31	12	4-7	3-5	1-1	+5	7	10
J. YoungG · #0	31	13	6-16	0-2	1-2	+21	6	6
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	14	2	1-1	—	—	-9	2	1
B. TurnerF · #21	3	0	—	—	—	-9	0	0
J. LoydG · #24	27	6	2-4	1-3	1-2	-6	4	1
C. CarterG · #23	22	18	5-8	0-1	8-12	-3	1	1
Team		101	35-58	6-13	25-32		28	24
DNP: K. Bell, J. Barker, D. Evans

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	17	6	3-5	—	—	-18	3	0
D. MillerF · #1	15	10	3-10	2-4	2-2	-6	3	0
K. BurkeG · #25	24	11	5-12	1-5	—	-19	3	3
H. Van LithG · #2	22	17	7-11	3-4	—	-4	1	4
G. KneepkensG · #5	18	3	1-5	0-2	1-1	-5	3	1
Bench
A. MorrowF · #24	27	10	4-11	0-3	2-2	+4	10	2
R. BeersF · #15	17	6	2-4	—	2-2	+14	4	2
N. AnglomaF · #33	14	7	3-6	—	1-2	+4	1	1
S. RiversG · #22	28	14	5-12	2-6	2-2	-2	3	7
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	18	10	3-5	1-1	3-4	-3	1	4
Team		94	36-81	9-25	13-15		32	24
DNP: B. Griner, O. Nelson-Ododa

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CON

Home

35-58

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-81

FG %

6-13

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-25

25-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV leads series 2-0

May 14

LV98@

CON69

May 15

LV101@

CON94today

Aug 21

CON@

LVupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

172.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

LV-135093%

CON+80011%

100· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -15.5↗SpreadBet LV -15.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

-1.0 since open

Total

172.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat CON 101-94. A. Wilson led the way with 45 points and 3 assists. LV outscored the other side 28-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CON vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 21 REB · 21 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

GS 22

CONstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 30

Bench(5)

47 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST

GS 41

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CON3rd Quarter · 1:13 · 72-70

+7pp→ 24% WP

Saniya Rivers · makes 24-foot running jump shot (Charlisse Leger-Walker assists)

LV3rd Quarter · 51.6 · 75-70

+7pp→ 83% WP

A'ja Wilson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chelsea Gray assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	28	26	25	22	101
CON	20	24	27	23	94

Period scoring

LV won 2 · CON won 2

Wilson 11

Burke 7

Wilson 8

Edwards 6

Wilson 12

Rivers 8

Wilson 13

Lith 13

CON

Shooting comparison

CON

60%

35-58

44%

36-81

46%

6-13

3PT

36%

9-25

78%

25-32

87%

13-15

Play-by-play · 413 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 101·CON 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 101·CON 94
Q4·0.1
Sun offensive team rebound
LV 101·CON 94
Q4·0.2
Aneesah Morrow misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
LV 101·CON 94
Q4·3.8
Chennedy Carter lost ball turnover (Aneesah Morrow steals)
·
LV 101·CON 94
Q4·24.9
Aneesah Morrow makes running layup
LV 101·CON 94
Q4·29.8
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
LV 101·CON 92
Q4·33.0
Jewell Loyd misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 101·CON 92
Q4·48.6
Hailey Van Lith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gianna Kneepkens assists)
·
LV 101·CON 92
Q4·59.8
Nell Angloma enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
LV 101·CON 89
Q4·59.8
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus enters the game for A'ja Wilson
·
LV 101·CON 89
Q4·59.8
Chennedy Carter enters the game for Jackie Young
·
LV 101·CON 89
Q4·59.8
Stephanie Talbot personal foul
LV 101·CON 89
Q4·1:05
Raegan Beers defensive rebound
LV 101·CON 89
Q4·1:07
Jackie Young misses driving layup
LV 101·CON 89
Q4·1:16
Hailey Van Lith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aneesah Morrow assists)
·
LV 101·CON 89
Q4·1:30
A'ja Wilson makes 26-foot three point jumper
LV 101·CON 86
Q4·1:43
Aneesah Morrow makes layup (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
LV 98·CON 86
Q4·1:54
A'ja Wilson makes driving layup
LV 98·CON 84
Q4·2:10
Hailey Van Lith makes 6-foot pullup jump shot (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
LV 96·CON 84
Q4·2:39
A'ja Wilson makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
LV 96·CON 82
Q4·2:53
Raegan Beers offensive foul turnover
LV 94·CON 82
Q4·2:53
Raegan Beers offensive foul
LV 94·CON 82
Q4·3:01
Sun Full timeout
LV 94·CON 82
Q4·3:01
A'ja Wilson makes 4-foot pullup jump shot (Chelsea Gray assists)
·
LV 94·CON 82
Q4·3:12
Raegan Beers makes free throw 1 of 1
LV 92·CON 82
−0.9pp
Q4·3:12
Jewell Loyd shooting foul
LV 92·CON 81
+1pp
Q4·3:12
Raegan Beers makes running layup (Saniya Rivers assists)
·
LV 92·CON 81
Q4·3:16
Aneesah Morrow defensive rebound
LV 92·CON 79
Q4·3:20
Jackie Young misses 24-foot three point jumper
LV 92·CON 79

Betting line

LV -15.5·O/U 172.5·LV -1350/CON +800

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Connecticut Sun and beat them, 101–94.

CON +15.5 cashed (LV won by 7). Total cleared the 172.5 OVER by 22.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

eFG%

shooting

65.5%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

19.1%

12.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

12.5%

30.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

43.1%

16.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Aneesah MorrowCON · F
DRB%.37599+
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Chelsea GrayLV · G
AST/TO2.183

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

6.9%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
17.2%
P(CON win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
15.4%
P(CON win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
19.0%
P(CON win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.49

CLV pp

Open price

+950

Close price

+800

Open no-vig

9.2%

Close no-vig

10.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at CON?: The model favors CON, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.8pp

best edge · LV · DraftKings

★ best

-1350DraftKings

edge +3.8pp · implied 89.3%

CON

no live price

Book	LV	CON	Best edge
DraftKings	-1350★	+800	+3.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CON vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.4± 8.1high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.4high
Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.7± 4.0high
Aneesah MorrowCON
8.6± 5.4high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.4± 2.9high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
7.0± 2.0high
Jackie YoungLV
6.1± 3.4high
Leila LacanCON
4.5± 1.6medium

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.4high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.1± 1.7medium
A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.5high
Jewell LoydLV
1.5± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesConnecticut Sun

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop