Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LA?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4LA

TOR

1-2

9599

1-2

WNBAFri, May 15FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-1VegasLA -7.5

TOR · top performer

Brittney Sykes

G · #20

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LA · top performer

Kelsey Plum

G · #10

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ LA

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 56.8

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	28	14	5-10	0-1	4-4	-4	9	3
N. MilicF · #31	5	0	—	—	—	-15	0	0
B. SykesG · #20	35	27	7-19	2-7	11-11	-7	4	7
M. MabreyG · #3	21	7	3-10	1-6	—	-21	2	0
J. AllemandG · #22	21	5	2-4	1-3	—	-18	1	4
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	20	6	2-6	2-5	—	0	4	0
T. KeyF · #7	9	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	-1	2	1
L. JuskaiteF · #2	25	16	5-9	2-4	4-5	+19	3	4
K. NurseG · #11	9	4	2-4	0-2	—	+8	1	1
L. HeldG · #12	6	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
K. RiceG · #1	21	11	4-7	3-4	—	+15	0	2
Team		95	31-70	12-33	21-22		26	22

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	32	20	8-11	1-2	3-3	+14	5	3
D. HambyF · #5	32	19	8-10	—	3-3	+6	7	4
E. WheelerG · #17	33	10	3-5	2-4	2-2	+16	2	7
K. PlumG · #10	33	27	10-16	4-8	3-4	+8	0	9
R. BurrellG · #12	35	13	5-6	2-3	1-2	+10	5	2
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	16	10	3-6	0-1	4-6	-12	3	1
K. MartinG · #21	6	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	1	0
T. LatsonG · #0	2	0	—	—	—	-7	0	0
C. GrayG · #2	11	0	0-2	0-2	—	-14	1	0
Team		99	37-58	9-21	16-20		24	26
DNP: E. Cannon, Jihyun

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

31-70

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-58

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-21

21-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

May 16

TOR95@

LA99today

May 17

TOR106@

LA96

Jun 25

LA97@

TOR125

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

1.0pt· 6h

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+27027%

LA-34077%

60· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -7.5↗SpreadBet LA -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

+1.0 since open

Total

170.5

+5.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat TOR 99-95. K. Plum paced them with 27 PTS, 0 REB, 9 AST. LA outscored the other side 28-17 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LA vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

53 PTS · 16 REB · 14 AST

GS 42

Bench(6)

42 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST

GS 37

LAstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 19 REB · 25 AST

GS 78

Bench(4)

10 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST

GS 4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LA4th Quarter · 1:44 · 89-92

+10pp→ 91% WP

Laura Juskaite · personal foul

LA4th Quarter · 56.8 · 89-95

+13pp→ 97% WP

Brittney Sykes · misses driving layup

TOR4th Quarter · 55.3 · 91-95

+12pp→ 21% WP

Nyara Sabally · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	17	21	25	32	95
LA	28	18	28	25	99

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · LA won 2

Sykes 5

Hamby 10

Allemand 5

Burrell 5

Rice 5

Hamby 9

Sykes 14

Plum 15

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

44%

31-70

64%

37-58

36%

12-33

3PT

43%

9-21

95%

21-22

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 388 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 95·LA 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 95·LA 99
+0.9pp
Q4·3.3
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 3 of 3
TOR 95·LA 99
+0.8pp
Q4·3.3
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 3
TOR 94·LA 99
−1pp
Q4·3.3
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 3
TOR 93·LA 99
Q4·3.3
Cameron Brink shooting foul
TOR 92·LA 99
Q4·8.9
Cameron Brink makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 92·LA 99
Q4·8.9
Cameron Brink makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 92·LA 98
Q4·8.9
Nyara Sabally personal foul
TOR 92·LA 97
+0.5pp
Q4·9.1
Cameron Brink defensive rebound
TOR 92·LA 97
+0.8pp
Q4·12.1
Kia Nurse misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 92·LA 97
+2pp
Q4·13.8
Kia Nurse enters the game for Kiki Rice
·
TOR 92·LA 97
Q4·13.8
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 92·LA 97
Q4·13.8
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 92·LA 97
−1pp
Q4·13.8
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 92·LA 96
+0.6pp
Q4·13.8
Kiki Rice personal foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 92·LA 95
+7pp
Q4·26.5
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
TOR 92·LA 95
+2pp
Q4·27.1
Marina Mabrey misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
TOR 92·LA 95
+8pp
Q4·31.0
Cameron Brink enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
TOR 92·LA 95
Q4·31.0
Marina Mabrey enters the game for Maria Conde
·
TOR 92·LA 95
Q4·31.0
Tempo timeout
TOR 92·LA 95
Q4·33.5
Nyara Sabally defensive rebound
TOR 92·LA 95
−2pp
Q4·35.1
Kelsey Plum misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 92·LA 95
−4pp
Q4·55.3
Sparks Full timeout
TOR 92·LA 95
Q4·55.3
Nyara Sabally makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 92·LA 95
+8pp
Q4·55.3
Nyara Sabally makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 91·LA 95
−12pp
Q4·55.3
Maria Conde enters the game for Marina Mabrey
·
TOR 90·LA 95
Q4·55.3
Brittney Sykes makes technical free throw
TOR 90·LA 95
−1pp
Q4·55.3
Rae Burrell technical foul
TOR 89·LA 95
Q4·55.3
Rae Burrell shooting foul
TOR 89·LA 95
−3pp

Betting line

LA -7.5·O/U 170.5·TOR +270/LA -340

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks held off Toronto Tempo, 99–95. Decided by 4.

TOR +7.5 cashed (LA won by 4). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

eFG%

shooting

52.9%

71.6%

TOV%

ball control

14.0%

19.3%

OREB%

offensive glass

31.3%

11.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

30.0%

27.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.8%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
53.5%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
49.2%
P(LA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.58

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+225

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

29.5%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at LA?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.6pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+270DraftKings

edge +27.6pp · implied 25.9%

no live price

Book	TOR	LA	Best edge
DraftKings	+270★	-340	+27.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
0.7± 0.8medium

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Toronto TempoLos Angeles Sparks

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop