WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WSH

WSH

2-1

104102

IND

1-2

WNBAFri, May 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasIND -8.5

WSH · top performer

Sonia Citron

G · #22

28.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Caitlin Clark

G · #22

22.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 3.1

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. IriafenF · #44	36	25	11-17	1-1	2-4	+10	13	2
S. AustinC · #0	34	19	7-11	—	5-6	+6	9	5
S. CitronG · #22	38	30	10-14	1-4	9-10	+7	6	4
C. McMahonG · #23	30	13	5-12	2-4	1-2	-13	5	2
G. AmooreG · #8	24	7	2-3	1-2	2-2	+13	0	4
Bench
A. DugalicF · #32	6	0	—	—	—	-7	3	0
L. BettsC · #51	14	4	1-2	—	2-2	-5	2	0
R. HarmonG · #3	9	1	—	—	1-2	-2	1	1
C. ProsperG · #18	25	2	1-6	0-2	—	+8	4	0
A. WilsonG · #4	9	3	1-3	1-3	—	-7	1	0
Team		104	38-68	6-16	22-28		44	18
DNP: M. Onyenwere, L. Olsen

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	36	10	4-11	1-2	1-2	-9	9	3
A. BostonC · #7	21	9	3-8	1-3	2-4	-12	4	1
K. MitchellG · #0	39	24	10-25	4-8	0-2	-10	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	20	7	2-5	1-3	2-2	0	1	2
C. ClarkG · #22	37	32	10-28	7-17	5-5	+14	4	10
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	21	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	+5	2	5
M. TimpsonF · #21	4	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	0
D. DantasC · #12	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	+3	2	0
T. HarrisG · #52	10	2	1-2	0-1	—	+2	0	1
L. HullG · #10	26	9	3-6	2-4	1-2	+8	4	1
R. JohnsonG · #3	4	0	—	—	—	-10	2	0
Team		102	36-92	17-42	13-19		29	23
DNP: S. Walker-Kimbrough

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

IND

Home

38-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-92

FG %

6-16

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-42

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 15

WSH104@

IND102today

Jun 8

IND78@

WSH76

Sep 20

WSH@

INDupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -8.5

Between 7 and 10

1.0pt· 6h

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+31024%

IND-39580%

30· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -8.5↗SpreadBet IND -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

+2.0 since open

Total

170.5

-5.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat IND 104-102. S. Citron paced them with 30 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. WSH outscored the other side 20-9 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

10 PTS · 11 REB · 1 AST

GS 0

INDstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST

GS 54

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 3.1 · 89-89

+43pp→ 49% WP

Caitlin Clark · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)

INDOT · 1:29 · 102-98

+24pp→ 38% WP

Kiki Iriafen · loose ball foul

WSHOT · 45.7 · 102-99

+18pp→ 80% WP

Lexie Hull · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
WSH	21	20	26	22	15	104
IND	28	9	21	31	13	102

Period scoring

WSH won 3 · IND won 2

Austin 6

Clark 6

Austin 6

Mitchell 4

Iriafen 13

Mitchell 7

Citron 12

Clark 17

Citron 5

Mitchell 5

WSH

IND

Shooting comparison

WSH

IND

56%

38-68

39%

36-92

38%

6-16

3PT

40%

17-42

79%

22-28

68%

13-19

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
WSH 104·IND 102
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
WSH 104·IND 102
OT·0.0
Fever offensive team rebound
WSH 104·IND 102
OT·0.0
Kelsey Mitchell misses 21-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 104·IND 102
−10pp
OT·4.5
Sonia Citron makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 104·IND 102
−2pp
OT·4.5
Rori Harmon enters the game for Alex Wilson
·
WSH 103·IND 102
OT·4.5
Monique Billings enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
WSH 103·IND 102
OT·4.5
Mystics offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
WSH 103·IND 102
+5pp
OT·4.5
Sonia Citron misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 103·IND 102
+3pp
OT·4.5
Lexie Hull personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 103·IND 102
−11pp
OT·5.4
Alex Wilson enters the game for Rori Harmon
·
WSH 103·IND 102
OT·5.4
Mystics timeout
WSH 103·IND 102
−2pp
OT·6.2
Lexie Hull makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 103·IND 102
+10pp
OT·11.3
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Monique Billings
·
WSH 103·IND 99
OT·11.3
Fever timeout
WSH 103·IND 99
OT·11.3
Rori Harmon makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 103·IND 99
+1pp
OT·11.3
Mystics offensive team rebound
WSH 102·IND 99
+2pp
OT·11.3
Rori Harmon misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 102·IND 99
+2pp
OT·11.3
Lexie Hull personal take foul
WSH 102·IND 99
−0.5pp
OT·14.1
Monique Billings enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
WSH 102·IND 99
OT·14.1
Myisha Hines-Allen personal take foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 102·IND 99
−6pp
OT·14.4
Kiki Iriafen defensive rebound
WSH 102·IND 99
−4pp
OT·16.8
Kelsey Mitchell misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 102·IND 99
−12pp
OT·23.7
Sophie Cunningham enters the game for Monique Billings
·
WSH 102·IND 99
OT·23.7
Fever Full timeout
WSH 102·IND 99
OT·23.7
Rori Harmon offensive foul turnover
WSH 102·IND 99
OT·23.7
Rori Harmon offensive foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 102·IND 99
+6pp
OT·44.2
Shakira Austin defensive rebound
WSH 102·IND 99
OT·45.7
Lexie Hull misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 102·IND 99
−18pp
OT·45.7
Lexie Hull makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 102·IND 99
+2pp

Betting line

IND -8.5·O/U 170.5·WSH +310/IND -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ashington Mystics went into Indiana Fever and beat them, 104–102 in overtime. Decided by 2.

WSH +8.5 cashed (IND lost outright). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 35.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

WSH

IND

eFG%

shooting

60.3%

48.4%

TOV%

ball control

19.9%

9.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.8%

23.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

32.4%

14.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiki IriafenWSH · F
DRB%.30197
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Shakira AustinWSH · C
DRB%.28195
Sophie CunninghamIND · G
eFG%.59688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.6%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
73.3%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
77.8%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
78.3%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.8pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

WSH

★ best

+310DraftKings

edge +6.8pp · implied 23.4%

IND

no live price

Book	WSH	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+310★	-395	+6.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Shakira AustinWSH
16.8± 5.6high

Rebounds

Shakira AustinWSH
9.8± 3.7high
Kiki IriafenWSH
9.0± 3.6high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Sonia CitronWSH
3.8± 2.0high
Georgia AmooreWSH
3.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Shakira AustinWSH
1.6± 1.3high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.2± 1.2high
Sonia CitronWSH
1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Washington MysticsIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop