Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at GS?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+6CHI

CHI

2-0

6963

2-1

WNBAWed, May 13FinalSeriesCHI leads series 1-0VegasGS -5.5

CHI · top performer

Jacy Sheldon

G · #0

14.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Gabby Williams

F · #1

10.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 1:41

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. JacksonF · #5	39	18	6-18	1-5	5-6	+3	5	5
K. CardosoC · #10	27	8	3-10	—	2-5	+7	7	1
S. DigginsG · #4	34	15	5-16	1-4	4-6	+8	5	7
J. SheldonG · #0	31	12	4-8	2-5	2-2	+7	7	4
G. JaquezG · #11	26	7	3-7	1-2	—	+10	5	2
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	13	2	1-2	—	0-2	-1	6	0
N. CloudG · #9	18	7	3-7	1-3	—	-2	4	0
R. BanhamG · #24	12	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
Team		69	25-69	6-20	13-21		39	19
DNP: A. Coulibaly, S. Taylor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	30	0	0-11	0-3	—	-2	6	0
G. WilliamsF · #1	32	18	6-17	3-6	3-4	-4	5	1
K. StokesC · #41	29	7	3-8	0-2	1-2	-2	11	2
K. CharlesG · #6	28	9	4-9	1-4	—	-4	9	2
V. BurtonG · #22	36	16	5-15	2-6	4-4	+5	3	4
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	11	3	1-2	—	1-2	-4	1	1
J. SalaunF · #13	17	6	1-5	1-4	3-4	-9	1	0
K. ChenG · #2	18	4	2-8	0-1	—	-10	6	0
Team		63	22-75	7-26	12-16		42	10
DNP: A. Prechtel, M. Sowah, N. Mwenentanda

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

Home

25-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

22-75

FG %

6-20

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-26

13-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHI leads series 1-0

May 14

CHI69@

GS63today

Aug 13

CHI@

GSupcoming

Aug 21

GS@

CHIupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

166.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

CHI+20533%

GS-25071%

7· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -5.5↗SpreadBet GS -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

+2.0 since open

Total

166.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat GS 69-63. J. Sheldon led with 12 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. GS outscored the other side 19-10 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 29 REB · 19 AST

GS 50

Bench(3)

9 PTS · 10 REB · 0 AST

GS 3

GSstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 34 REB · 9 AST

GS 28

Bench(3)

13 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

GS 6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI4th Quarter · 5:51 · 57-54

+14pp→ 54% WP

Jacy Sheldon · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Skylar Diggins assists)

CHI4th Quarter · 2:33 · 58-56

+14pp→ 77% WP

Kaila Charles · personal foul

CHI4th Quarter · 1:41 · 63-58

+17pp→ 85% WP

Rickea Jackson · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kamilla Cardoso assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	10	14	25	20	69
GS	19	9	16	19	63

Period scoring

CHI won 3 · GS won 1

Diggins 6

Williams 7

Diggins 4

Williams 3

Jackson 9

Charles 5

Sheldon 10

Diggins 7

CHI

Shooting comparison

CHI

36%

25-69

29%

22-75

30%

6-20

3PT

27%

7-26

62%

13-21

75%

12-16

Play-by-play · 412 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 69·GS 63
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 69·GS 63
Q4·2.6
Rickea Jackson defensive rebound
CHI 69·GS 63
Q4·3.1
Laeticia Amihere misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 69·GS 63
−0.5pp
Q4·3.1
Laeticia Amihere makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 69·GS 63
Q4·3.1
Rickea Jackson loose ball foul
CHI 69·GS 62
Q4·7.1
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
CHI 69·GS 62
Q4·8.4
Veronica Burton misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 69·GS 62
−0.9pp
Q4·19.4
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 69·GS 62
+0.6pp
Q4·19.4
Skylar Diggins makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 68·GS 62
Q4·19.4
Laeticia Amihere enters the game for Kiah Stokes
·
CHI 67·GS 62
Q4·19.4
Veronica Burton enters the game for Kaitlyn Chen
·
CHI 67·GS 62
Q4·19.4
Kiah Stokes shooting foul
CHI 67·GS 62
−2pp
Q4·21.2
Janelle Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 67·GS 62
Q4·21.2
Kaitlyn Chen enters the game for Veronica Burton
·
CHI 67·GS 61
Q4·21.2
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
CHI 67·GS 61
−2pp
Q4·21.2
Janelle Salaun misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 67·GS 61
+4pp
Q4·21.2
(00:21.2) [Sky] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Sky] charged with a timeout
CHI 67·GS 61
Q4·21.2
Sky Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
CHI 67·GS 61
−8pp
Q4·21.2
Rickea Jackson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 67·GS 61
+6pp
Q4·23.8
Janelle Salaun enters the game for Kaila Charles
·
CHI 67·GS 61
Q4·23.8
Golden State Valkyries timeout
CHI 67·GS 61
Q4·23.8
Jacy Sheldon makes 3-foot layup (Gabriela Jaquez assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 67·GS 61
−5pp
Q4·30.2
Sky timeout
CHI 65·GS 61
Q4·30.6
Gabby Williams makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
CHI 65·GS 61
+5pp
Q4·46.7
Rickea Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 65·GS 58
+2pp
Q4·46.7
Rickea Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 64·GS 58
−0.5pp
Q4·46.7
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
· ·
CHI 63·GS 58
Q4·46.7
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
CHI 63·GS 58
Q4·46.7
Kiah Stokes shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 63·GS 58
−6pp

Betting line

GS -5.5·O/U 166.5·CHI +205/GS -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

hicago Sky went into Golden State Valkyries and beat them, 69–63.

CHI +5.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 166.5 by 34.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

eFG%

shooting

40.6%

34.0%

TOV%

ball control

9.3%

11.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

22.2%

31.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

18.8%

16.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Gabby WilliamsGS · F
USG%.27488

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.1%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
73.7%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
71.9%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
68.7%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+6.58

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-175

Close price

-238

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

67.5%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at GS?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.3pp

best edge · GS · DraftKings

CHI

no live price

★ best

-250DraftKings

edge +2.3pp · implied 68.5%

Book	CHI	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+205	-250★	+2.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Sydney TaylorCHI
15.9± 6.3high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
15.8± 7.2high

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high
Kiah StokesGS
5.0± 1.9high

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 1.1high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkyGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop