Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at LA?

The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+9IND

IND

1-1

8778

0-2

WNBAWed, May 13FinalSeriesIND wins series 2-1VegasIND -1.5

IND · top performer

Caitlin Clark

G · #22

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LA · top performer

Kelsey Plum

G · #10

14.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ LA

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:33

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	27	9	2-4	1-1	4-6	+7	8	2
A. BostonC · #7	23	4	0-3	0-1	4-4	+9	7	2
K. MitchellG · #0	27	23	9-17	3-9	2-2	+14	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	27	12	5-9	2-5	—	+14	7	1
C. ClarkG · #22	31	24	9-17	1-7	5-5	+5	4	9
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	11	2	1-1	—	—	+5	2	3
M. TimpsonF · #21	9	2	1-2	—	—	-3	1	1
D. DantasC · #12	11	3	1-4	1-4	—	0	1	0
T. HarrisG · #52	16	7	3-4	1-2	—	-5	1	3
L. HullG · #10	13	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-5	1	0
R. JohnsonG · #3	5	0	0-1	—	—	+4	1	2
Team		87	31-63	9-30	16-19		33	23
DNP: S. Walker-Kimbrough

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #3	32	10	3-5	1-2	3-4	-10	5	0
D. HambyF · #5	29	16	6-8	0-1	4-5	-10	8	1
K. PlumG · #10	37	25	9-16	1-5	6-8	-10	1	4
A. AtkinsG · #7	16	2	0-4	0-1	2-2	-14	2	2
R. BurrellG · #12	29	10	4-10	0-2	2-2	-7	1	1
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	19	11	4-6	0-2	3-4	+2	5	1
E. WheelerG · #17	21	2	1-5	0-1	—	+3	1	4
T. LatsonG · #0	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	0	0
C. GrayG · #2	16	2	1-2	—	—	-1	1	0
Team		78	28-57	2-15	20-25		24	13
DNP: E. Cannon, Jihyun

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

Home

31-63

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

28-57

FG %

9-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

2-15

16-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

IND wins series 2-1

May 14

IND87@

LA78today

Jun 28

LA87@

IND111

Jul 9

IND92@

LA106

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -1.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

186.5

High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND-11553%

LA-10551%

15· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -1.5↗SpreadBet IND -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

-1.0 since open

Total

186.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat LA 87-78. C. Clark led with 24 PTS, 4 REB, 9 AST. IND outscored the other side 24-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LA vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 55

Bench(6)

15 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST

GS 12

LAstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 42

Bench(4)

15 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND1st Quarter · 1:32 · 24-20

+7pp→ 63% WP

Kelsey Plum · bad pass turnover (Sophie Cunningham steals)

IND2nd Quarter · 6:33 · 32-26

+8pp→ 67% WP

Sophie Cunningham · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)

IND2nd Quarter · 4:54 · 37-26

+7pp→ 84% WP

Lexie Hull · kicked ball violation

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	24	24	20	19	87
LA	20	14	18	26	78

Period scoring

IND won 3 · LA won 1

Clark 7

Plum 7

Mitchell 11

Plum 6

Mitchell 4

Brink 5

Clark 9

Plum 10

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

49%

31-63

49%

28-57

30%

9-30

3PT

13%

2-15

84%

16-19

80%

20-25

Play-by-play · 402 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 87·LA 78
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 87·LA 78
Q4·9.1
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 87·LA 78
Q4·9.1
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 86·LA 78
Q4·9.1
Erica Wheeler personal foul
IND 85·LA 78
Q4·22.7
Rae Burrell makes 2-foot two point shot
IND 85·LA 78
Q4·33.2
Kelsey Mitchell makes 3-foot layup (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 85·LA 76
Q4·34.3
Erica Wheeler personal foul
IND 83·LA 76
−2pp
Q4·53.1
Makayla Timpson defensive rebound
IND 83·LA 76
−0.8pp
Q4·56.2
Kelsey Plum misses 22-foot three point jumper
IND 83·LA 76
−2pp
Q4·1:02
Caitlin Clark lost ball turnover (Rae Burrell steals)
·
IND 83·LA 76
+2pp
Q4·1:23
Fever Full timeout
IND 83·LA 76
Q4·1:23
Kelsey Plum makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot
IND 83·LA 76
+1pp
Q4·1:31
Cameron Brink defensive rebound
IND 83·LA 74
Q4·1:34
Kelsey Mitchell misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
IND 83·LA 74
Q4·1:52
Cameron Brink makes driving layup (Kelsey Plum assists)
·
IND 83·LA 74
Q4·2:02
Caitlin Clark makes 2-foot two point shot
IND 83·LA 72
−0.8pp
Q4·2:12
Cameron Brink makes 3-foot layup (Erica Wheeler assists)
·
IND 81·LA 72
+0.5pp
Q4·2:26
Sparks defensive team rebound
IND 81·LA 70
Q4·2:26
Monique Billings misses layup
IND 81·LA 70
Q4·2:29
Monique Billings offensive rebound
IND 81·LA 70
Q4·2:29
Cameron Brink blocks Caitlin Clark 's 18-foot step back jumpshot
·
IND 81·LA 70
Q4·2:50
Rae Burrell makes finger roll layup (Cameron Brink assists)
·
IND 81·LA 70
Q4·3:10
Sparks defensive team rebound
IND 81·LA 68
Q4·3:11
Monique Billings misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 81·LA 68
Q4·3:11
Monique Billings makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 81·LA 68
Q4·3:11
Cameron Brink shooting foul
IND 80·LA 68
Q4·3:29
Monique Billings defensive rebound
IND 80·LA 68
Q4·3:32
Nneka Ogwumike misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 80·LA 68
−2pp
Q4·3:32
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 80·LA 68

Betting line

IND -1.5·O/U 186.5·IND -115/LA -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever went into Los Angeles Sparks and beat them, 87–78.

IND -1.5 cashed (won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 186.5 by 21.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

eFG%

shooting

56.3%

50.9%

TOV%

ball control

18.3%

21.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

28.6%

13.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

25.4%

35.1%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Sophie CunninghamIND · G
eFG%.59688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.1%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
50.1%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
50.6%
P(LA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
51.9%
P(LA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.10

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+120

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at LA?: The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.6pp

best edge · IND · DraftKings

IND

★ best

-115DraftKings

edge +4.6pp · implied 51.1%

no live price

Book	IND	LA	Best edge
DraftKings	-115★	-105	+4.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LA vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Dearica HambyLA
6.4± 2.5high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverLos Angeles Sparks

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop