IND
0-1
LA
0-1
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2Key moments · live
newest firstModel ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · LA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
5
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
IND · top performer
Kelsey Mitchell
G · #0
14
Pts
0
Reb
0
Ast
LA · top performer
Kelsey Plum
G · #10
10
Pts
1
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Box score
IND
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 12 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +10 | |
| 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12 | |
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 12 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4 | |
| Team | 41 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 8 | ||
| DNP: S. Walker-Kimbrough | ||||||||
LA
0-1
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -11 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -11 | |
| 13 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -11 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| Team | 31 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | ||
| DNP: E. Cannon, Jihyun | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
59
FG %
41
12
Ast
6
Season series
IND@LAtodayLA@INDupcomingIND@LAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -1.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
186.5
High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg
Moneyline
IND-11553%LA-10551%15· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
-1.0 since open
Total
186.5
0.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
3:01 - 2ndFever · offensive team rebound
INDK. Mitchell
GLeading · 3:01 - 2nd · 12 min
14 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
On pace: 47 PTS · 0 REB · 0 AST
LAK. Plum
GLeading · 3:01 - 2nd · 13 min
10 PTS · 1 REB · 3 AST
On pace: 31 PTS · 3 REB · 9 AST
How it's going
IND lead LA 41-31 (3:01 - 2nd). K. Mitchell led with 14 PTS, 0 REB, 0 AST.
Win probability
LA vs IND
Starters vs bench
production by unitINDstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
34 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST
GS 29
Bench(6)
7 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST
GS 7
LAstarters 87% of ptsStarters(5)
27 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
Bench(4)
4 PTS · 2 REB · 0 AST
GS 1
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKelsey Plum · bad pass turnover (Sophie Cunningham steals)
Sophie Cunningham · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)
Lexie Hull · kicked ball violation
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 24 | 17 | 41 |
| LA | 20 | 11 | 31 |
Period scoring
IND won 2 · LA won 0
Q1
Clark 7
Plum 7
Q2
Mitchell 8
Hamby 4
Shooting comparison
59%
16-27
FG
41%
12-29
43%
6-14
3PT
25%
2-8
60%
3-5
FT
100%
5-5
Play-by-play · 159 plays
Fever offensive team rebound
IND 40·LA 31
+1pp
Lexie Hull misses free throw 1 of 2
IND 40·LA 31
+2pp
Rae Burrell personal foul
IND 40·LA 31
−3pp
Damiris Dantas defensive rebound
IND 40·LA 31
−0.5pp
Ta'Niya Latson misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 40·LA 31
−2pp
Cameron Brink defensive rebound
IND 40·LA 31
+0.5pp
Caitlin Clark misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 40·LA 31
+2pp
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 40·LA 31
−2pp
Kelsey Plum makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 40·LA 30
+0.6pp
Kelsey Mitchell shooting foul
IND 40·LA 29
+4pp
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Monique Billings
·
IND 40·LA 29
Kelsey Plum makes technical free throw
IND 40·LA 29
+2pp
Monique Billings defensive 3-seconds (technical foul)
IND 40·LA 28
+0.6pp
Kelsey Mitchell makes 17-foot step back jumpshot (Myisha Hines-Allen assists)
·
IND 40·LA 28
−4pp
Cameron Brink makes driving layup (Rae Burrell assists)
·
IND 38·LA 28
+3pp
Nneka Ogwumike defensive rebound
IND 38·LA 26
Monique Billings misses free throw 2 of 2
IND 38·LA 26
+3pp
Ta'Niya Latson enters the game for Ariel Atkins
·
IND 38·LA 26
Cameron Brink enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
IND 38·LA 26
Monique Billings makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 38·LA 26
Kelsey Plum shooting foul
IND 37·LA 26
−3pp
Ariel Atkins out of bounds lost ball turnover
IND 37·LA 26
Lexie Hull kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
IND 37·LA 26
−7pp
Kelsey Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caitlin Clark assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 37·LA 26
−5pp
Myisha Hines-Allen enters the game for Aliyah BostonBIG MOMENT
·
IND 34·LA 26
+5pp
Lexie Hull enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
IND 34·LA 26
Kelsey Mitchell enters the game for Raven Johnson
·
IND 34·LA 26
Sparks Full timeout
IND 34·LA 26
Dearica Hamby out of bounds lost ball turnover
IND 34·LA 26
−3pp
Sophie Cunningham makes 2-foot layup (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 34·LA 26
−3pp
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
LA
Home
16-27
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
12-29
59
FG %
41
6-14
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
2-8
3-5
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
5-5
12
Assists
6
8
Turnovers
7
Betting line
IND -1.5·O/U 186.5·IND -115/LA -105
